my take since I have a 15 yr old and have thought about it. I can see a UC SB or Texas State coach complain because no 14 or 15 yr old says my dream school is Tx ST or Lamar. Just very rare, unless you have a connection with the coach and thats what its about frankly. Im going to assume most kids grow up dreaming about playing for a perennial pwr. Texas, A&M, LSU, Vandy. If your son is good enough to get offered by a program like that as a 2021 or 2020 I think more times than not its going to work out. you have to go into making a commitment knowing there will be competition and working hard and getting better is still going to happen because you won't see the field in college if you dont keep up.