I agree with you in some respects, and a lot of it has to do with the coaching staff. That's why I would ask the question of how many other players will be walking on in the fall, the expected fall roster.
There are many programs that will continue the practice of having large fall rosters, despite the new rules. There are many programs that will continue to begin the fall with 35 or less just as they always have done in the past and work to develop all players from the first day they set foot on the field. There are other programs where the staff will just take the best and let the others go after a long fall. Do your research and you won't get burned.
Beleive it or not, unless you were a pitcher, most $$ given out in the past has been very little for position players. We have a friend whose son was a top prospect, I think he only received 30% to play at his school and that offer was large for him Some may take that as an insult when offered but
that's reality. I know of quite a few players who turned down offers at schools because it was small and were insulted and went with the larger offer, only to find out that sometimes that doesn't mean much. Taking the larger offer doesn't always make a great fit.
However, I still stand by the fact that it's important to play, and coaches will play the best 9. If the coach has two players with equal talent, the one he has given money to will most likely be the one found in more games, IMO. Coaches have to justify to their bosses use of the school's money or they could lose it. That's just how it works, some programs it matters, some it doesn't. Your chances of playing as a walk on (recruited or not) in big programs is very difficult.
JMO.