PGStaff posted:...While the late bloomers do happen, it is much more ordinary to see the top underclassmen in HS, become the top seniors in HS...
As the dad of one confirmed late bloomer (and a probable second one in the pipeline), that's easy to explain.
Late bloomers face a mountain of obstacles in middle school and high school that tend to weed most of them out at a higher rate. Fair warning: this sounds brutal and bitter. But I assure you that everything on this list has been experienced by my 2016 or my 2022, sometimes both.
- Fewer opportunities to play - in our experience, very few coaches at that level can connect the dots to see what the ceiling of a player really is. They can't see past what they can do right now. So the late bloomers get cut, a lot. Or if they do make the team, they ride the pine because a coach isn't willing to risk having them on the field, so he goes with the more physically mature players. Both of mine largely rode the pine during their 13U year. Both got cut from all the "elite" local travel teams for their 14U year. I was fortunate enough to find a bad team with a good coach for my 2016. Hoping I just found something similar for my 2022.
- They get labeled as not being hard workers - The problem is actually that because they are behind developmentally, they don't get the same results from their hard work because their bodies are still changing, which often undoes all the work they put in.
- They get encouraged to quit by teammates/classmates - "Jeez you suck! Why are you even here?"
- They get "slotted" in their program - Poor or inconsistent performance by a late bloomer is hard for some coaches to get over in later years. The coach becomes so accustomed to focusing on the half-empty part of the glass that he doesn't notice that the glass was actually a 5-gallon bucket and it's only about a quart shy of overflowing. They still lock in on that empty part of the vessel.
- Abuse by teammates, part 2 - The same "chosen ones" that were telling them to quit when they were younger suddenly view the new and improved version as a threat when the late bloomer surpasses them physically, especially since "everyone" knows that the late bloomer didn't work as hard as they did (see above). To them, the late bloomer doesn't deserve success, so they ostracize him and isolate him. This is especially true when the late bloomer was cut or left on JV in earlier years. (This is probably the worst part.)
- They don't get the same level of "push" or advice from coaches - Again, since they formed low expectations early on, they not only don't see them as contributors to their program, they also don't see them furthering their career after graduation.
Thankfully, 2016 was determined enough to push through this. That determination also got him through TJ surgery and rehab. He's now 6-7 250 and about to start his R-Fr year at a JuCo (despite his glowing 6.5 PG rating).
Jury is of course still out on 2022. But so far he appears to be doomed to the same path - he's already able to check off the 1st three bullets.