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I know the recruiting timeline has compressed for players in recent years.  My question is related to current 2015’s that are on the bubble for bigger D1 programs vs smaller schools.  While biggest schools are offering earlier each year when should a 2015 begin to worry about real big school interest.

 

He is a big kid definitely noticed but a very young 16yo junior that continues to develop.  His size gets looks and he is on many boards but in your recent experience when will those slots lock up.

 

Based on past progression i’d put him sitting at 86-88 this summer, he  topped at 85 last year but sat 79-81

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Big Pitchers Dad, This will be a big year for your son. There will always be room for a pitcher, though lots of your big D1 schools have nabbed most of the superior pitchers for this class. If there are schools your son is interested in, he should shoot out some emails and let them know his spring schedule. Sometimes if they are in the area they will come and take a look. No doubt this summer will be huge for him as he enters the fall of his Sr. year. Looks like he may sit mid 80's touching upper 80"s this summer, that will open up doors for him. typically RHP need to be at 90 or better to get looked at by big D1 and LHP sitting at 86 or better will get those looks. Good luck to him this spring. Just my opinion on what I've read and learned on this website by many knowledgeable posters.

While it's true that quite a few RHP's at major programs top 90 with their fastball, it doesn't require 90 mph velocity to get serious consideration from their recruiters. They all have very effective RHP's on their staffs that can't hit 90. However, the pitchers who don't touch 90 will demonstrate other important qualities like superior command of several pitches and the mental fortitude to stand up there and deliver the right pitch at the right time to the toughest of batters.

That makes sense my conundrum is a very young 2015 seeing steady progress in velo and noticeable changes in body type in the last two years.  6' 5 but a solid 260 now needs to be probably 245-250 to be as quick as we'd like to see but no longer the chubby arm.  As testosterone just hit last fall I presume (as due the longer term scouts looking at him) that he will gain progressively as he matures.  Unfortunately summer of JR year may see 87-88 vs some top arms that are obviously higher.  I realize D1 programs have shorter horizons than pro scouts but trying to get a grip on how long to wait until we broaden the baseball fit.  Of course before anyone says it I truly understand the school has to fit and that is a work in progress lol...On second college athlete experience and learned with daughter to let it happen

BigPD,

It sounds like your son has a very projectable size. He should get looks just based on his height alone, the velo will come. 

I would suggest you get his weight down. My kid is just under  6'4" and not considered fat at 240 runs a 7.5 60. First thing his DI coach did was knock 25lbs off him. Gave him a 3800 calorie diet and put 5 new muscle pounds back on. His velo is still the same, he just looks more athletic. 

If your son is throwing mid to upper 80's this summer at 6'5" looking lean and athletic he will get attention and offers.

Summer and possibly early fall if they have scout ball in your area will be critical. Don't just focus only on D1's,  make sure you keep lots of other options open particularly for a late developer. 2-3 years ago the magic number for D1 attention for my son was 87-88. Once he started hitting that the contact increased. 

Originally Posted by BOF:

Summer and possibly early fall if they have scout ball in your area will be critical. Don't just focus only on D1's,  make sure you keep lots of other options open particularly for a late developer. 2-3 years ago the magic number for D1 attention for my son was 87-88. Once he started hitting that the contact increased. 

I have to agree with BOF here. Do not wait to reach out to other divisions until you think the ship has sailed on D1. It will not be too late for D2, D3, Juco or NAIA, but If you target a wider spectrum you might be surprised at the Baseball played their. And you never know other parts of a smaller school may fit better. Not all kids are cut out for a large D1 academically, or socially.

Pitchers are less at risk of getting closed out in the ever-accelerating time table than are non-pitchers, because everyone is always looking for several pitchers in every recruiting class and it would be very rare for someone to get all they want this early on. 

 

We commonly see some of the Omaha-caliber programs adopt a "wait and see" on the kid who's throwing low/mid 80's in the fall.  If he jumps up to 87-89 in the spring, things can get interesting.  If he stays mid-80's, he may need to shift his focus to mid-majors.  (Subtract 3-4 mph from these numbers for lefties.)

 

If you get to July without any big time offers, then the first half of July needs to be spent trying to get attention from the mid-majors before all the doors start closing.

Update:  Recruited heavily in D2 and signed in early fall to a great program with great coaches.

Hit the spring of senior year sitting 87-88.  Expect 90-91 by end of hs season.

Very happy with his choice of schools but also wondering how many early D1 guys don't see continued progression.  Interesting debate as the D1's can't miss the boat but must stink when arms mature after crunch time.

BigPitchersDad - Would love to hear more about the journey and how the right fit came about.  My 2017 is around the same age, a few inches shorter and quite a bit lighter (needing to put on some pounds).  Similar velocities but left handed.  We are a couple months ahead of your original posting and am hoping 2017 makes the most of this summer.  Any insights into what folks are looking for, besides pure FB speed, would be greatly appreciated.

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