86 vs 96 Exit Velo

All other things equal as in the same player with an average exit velo of 86 versus that exact same player with average exit velo of 96. If the guy can play, it seems like it would be a significant difference and seriously boost stock as a prospect. Is that line of thinking not correct?

There is a mega-ton difference for most young players between game exit velocity and showcase exit velocity.

My current 14 year old had an 80 mph exit velocity at the age of 12 at a batting practice.  He's always been a strong kid but he just chopped down at the ball and used mostly lower half to achieve that number.  I haven't had him clocked/measured since because it seemed absurd.  The Academy director sure got excited about it though (..."oooh, another kid to exploit!").  We stopped being a part of that academy soon after that

Rest assured I am certain he didn't have that kind of exit velocity in games and we have spent years correcting the swing.  I'm sure college scouts see through such things.

I coached another kid with a measured 96 exit velocity, good player headed to a D3.  No chance he could hit D1 pitching on a consistent basis.

B-MoreBeast posted:

All other things equal as in the same player with an average exit velo of 86 versus that exact same player with average exit velo of 96. If the guy can play, it seems like it would be a significant difference and seriously boost stock as a prospect. Is that line of thinking not correct?

As Ironhorse stated, all other things are NEVER equal.  The player with the best exit velo on the HS team I coach can't stay on a curve ball.  So, his high exit velo does not seriously boost his stock as a prospect.  It's a good thing but, SO many other things.  

 I take it you are comparing yourself to another player?  If so, don't.  Compare yourself to the best self you can be in all phases of the game and work to get there.  Ask why that 96 isn't getting you more of what you want and work to get it.

Do you remember the name John Olerud? He never played in the Minor Leagues. Signed with the Blue Jays traded to the Mariners. In 2000 I had the opportunity to sit in the Mariners dugout before the game and specifically watch the BP. Olerud swing was without effort as the exit velocity if timed would be below average. In comparison Alex Rodriguez impact was above average.

However the ball "jumped" off Olerud bat and he hit ball after ball into the seats. Both players had great careers, but different swings except their vision was exceptional and they "slowed the ball down in their mind".

Question: why did Olerud wear a helmet at 1b?

Bob

 

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Average exit velocity is one of my favorite stats.  No doubt over a long period, say 100 at bats, it means a lot.

That said, outside of MLB no one is capable of compiling average exit velocity.  Only place we can do it all the time is in our indoor leagues using HitTrax.

Also if we see any player that has an average exit velocity of 96, that player would be a first pick of the draft possibility.  Because there is no player that ever lived that would have an average exit velocity that high.  Surely we must be talking about "peak" exit velocity 96.

Exit velocity off a Tee shows strength and bat speed.  It doesn't tell if someone can hit.  It's exit velocity in games that count. 

PGStaff posted:

Average exit velocity is one of my favorite stats.  No doubt over a long period, say 100 at bats, it means a lot.

That said, outside of MLB no one is capable of compiling average exit velocity.  Only place we can do it all the time is in our indoor leagues using HitTrax.

Also if we see any player that has an average exit velocity of 96, that player would be a first pick of the draft possibility.  Because there is no player that ever lived that would have an average exit velocity that high.  Surely we must be talking about "peak" exit velocity 96.

Exit velocity off a Tee shows strength and bat speed.  It doesn't tell if someone can hit.  It's exit velocity in games that count. 

I was thinking of average exit velo off front toss or BP. Doing that in games off elite pitching is ridiculous! Nelson Cruz averaged 96.2 on 375 recorded balls in play last season. Sano is at 101.1 on 29 balls in play this season, impressive but hardly a sustainable average. I guess to your point, these guys are all premier power hitters, and if they were amateurs would almost no doubt be the first overall pick or largest international signing.

Another exit velo thread, yes I can't resist...  For the millionth time high exit velo indicates potential it does not guarantee success.  Low exit velo however does pretty much guarantee failure.  86 is not low, just isn't high.  If this player had other things going for him he could be D1.  Again as PG stated assuming these numbers are peak off a tee.  Average EV in game brings consistently squaring the ball into the equation and that is in the long run much more important.

Bob, I am puzzled at some of the things you say.  You can not hit home runs with below average exit velocity.  And although Olerud's swing may look effortless I assure you his barrel was moving quite quickly and bat speed + squaring it up = high exit velo and home runs.  No player can survive in MLB without high EV.

So in fantasy land (to answer the question) if all other things are truly equal the difference between 86 and 96 would be absolutely gigantic.  

PGStaff posted:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

The link above for those interested in MLB exit velocity.

Obviously the average velocity (EV) will change as the season progresses.  Higher numbers likely to go done, lower numbers could improve.

That is a very interesting link, thank you.

I'm particularly fascinated by Billy Hamilton.

2017 Max EV = 97.3

2017 Avg EV = 79.4

They only have data for 2015-2017, but during that time his average EV has not been over 83 yet his OBP is roughly .300...he's getting the job done without the high EV.

CaCO3Girl posted:
PGStaff posted:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

The link above for those interested in MLB exit velocity.

Obviously the average velocity (EV) will change as the season progresses.  Higher numbers likely to go done, lower numbers could improve.

That is a very interesting link, thank you.

I'm particularly fascinated by Billy Hamilton.

2017 Max EV = 97.3

2017 Avg EV = 79.4

They only have data for 2015-2017, but during that time his average EV has not been over 83 yet his OBP is roughly .300...he's getting the job done without the high EV.

That 83 is average EV....   so for everytime you hit a dribbler at 40mph it brings your average way down.  so you need a lot in the 90's to balance those off.  90's is still high.  High for MLB?  no.  but high.  The post started with 86 max EV correct?  That is far different.  That 86 max off the tee might average 70?  75?  80 if he squares it up with alarming regularity?  its like saying the MLB guy who throws 93 is slow cause most MLB guys these days throw harder.  Every MLB guy throws hard.  Its hard, harder, hardest!

2020dad posted:
CaCO3Girl posted:
PGStaff posted:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

The link above for those interested in MLB exit velocity.

Obviously the average velocity (EV) will change as the season progresses.  Higher numbers likely to go done, lower numbers could improve.

That is a very interesting link, thank you.

I'm particularly fascinated by Billy Hamilton.

2017 Max EV = 97.3

2017 Avg EV = 79.4

They only have data for 2015-2017, but during that time his average EV has not been over 83 yet his OBP is roughly .300...he's getting the job done without the high EV.

That 83 is average EV....   so for everytime you hit a dribbler at 40mph it brings your average way down.  so you need a lot in the 90's to balance those off.  90's is still high.  High for MLB?  no.  but high.  The post started with 86 max EV correct?  That is far different.  That 86 max off the tee might average 70?  75?  80 if he squares it up with alarming regularity?  its like saying the MLB guy who throws 93 is slow cause most MLB guys these days throw harder.  Every MLB guy throws hard.  Its hard, harder, hardest!

My point was that you can be successful in MLB without mashing the ball every at bat :- )

Especially if your the fastest man in the league.  Those infield hits add up.

Regarding Olerud, he was well known for lacking bat speed, compared to most Big League power hitters. Evidently he had just enough bat speed to hit with some power.  Probably due to his ability to square up and create backspin with a good swing plane using a controlled easy swing. 

B-MoreBeast posted:

Just heard John Smoltz, on MLB Tonight, suggest that average exit velocity should include strikeouts and count them as 0MPH exit speed. General thoughts? Obviously this would change things quite a bit haha

Smoltz makes no sense. Exit velocity is based upon contact. Since striking out involved no contact, it isn't relevant.

B-MoreBeast posted:

Just heard John Smoltz, on MLB Tonight, suggest that average exit velocity should include strikeouts and count them as 0MPH exit speed. General thoughts? Obviously this would change things quite a bit haha

 

Then I would suggest that a pitcher's BB stat include all balls thrown during the game, divided by 4.

uncoach posted:
B-MoreBeast posted:

Just heard John Smoltz, on MLB Tonight, suggest that average exit velocity should include strikeouts and count them as 0MPH exit speed. General thoughts? Obviously this would change things quite a bit haha

Smoltz makes no sense. Exit velocity is based upon contact. Since striking out involved no contact, it isn't relevant.

KilroyJ posted:
B-MoreBeast posted:

Just heard John Smoltz, on MLB Tonight, suggest that average exit velocity should include strikeouts and count them as 0MPH exit speed. General thoughts? Obviously this would change things quite a bit haha

 

Then I would suggest that a pitcher's BB stat include all balls thrown during the game, divided by 4.

I can't figure out if I am missing the point or if it is YOU guys.

1. MANY of the big time hitters are striking out way more than their counterparts because they are trying to hit the HR rather than the single.  Smoltz was just trying to say, in the Smoltz way, that HR's are great but not if you strike out the other half of the time.  If we started counting the strike outs against the all consuming 150+mph exit velocity then maybe guys would avoid striking out more and get the hits the teams needs.

2. Counting up the balls and dividing by four is just silly.  If a pitcher throws three strikes in a row too often he won't be pitching for long, or in the MLB.

CaCO3Girl posted:
uncoach posted:
B-MoreBeast posted:

Just heard John Smoltz, on MLB Tonight, suggest that average exit velocity should include strikeouts and count them as 0MPH exit speed. General thoughts? Obviously this would change things quite a bit haha

Smoltz makes no sense. Exit velocity is based upon contact. Since striking out involved no contact, it isn't relevant.

KilroyJ posted:
B-MoreBeast posted:

Just heard John Smoltz, on MLB Tonight, suggest that average exit velocity should include strikeouts and count them as 0MPH exit speed. General thoughts? Obviously this would change things quite a bit haha

 

Then I would suggest that a pitcher's BB stat include all balls thrown during the game, divided by 4.

I can't figure out if I am missing the point or if it is YOU guys.

1. MANY of the big time hitters are striking out way more than their counterparts because they are trying to hit the HR rather than the single.  Smoltz was just trying to say, in the Smoltz way, that HR's are great but not if you strike out the other half of the time.  If we started counting the strike outs against the all consuming 150+mph exit velocity then maybe guys would avoid striking out more and get the hits the teams needs.

2. Counting up the balls and dividing by four is just silly.  If a pitcher throws three strikes in a row too often he won't be pitching for long, or in the MLB.

Your first point is the exact point Smoltz was making.

CaCO3Girl posted:
uncoach posted:
B-MoreBeast posted:

Just heard John Smoltz, on MLB Tonight, suggest that average exit velocity should include strikeouts and count them as 0MPH exit speed. General thoughts? Obviously this would change things quite a bit haha

Smoltz makes no sense. Exit velocity is based upon contact. Since striking out involved no contact, it isn't relevant.

KilroyJ posted:
B-MoreBeast posted:

Just heard John Smoltz, on MLB Tonight, suggest that average exit velocity should include strikeouts and count them as 0MPH exit speed. General thoughts? Obviously this would change things quite a bit haha

 

Then I would suggest that a pitcher's BB stat include all balls thrown during the game, divided by 4.

I can't figure out if I am missing the point or if it is YOU guys.

1. MANY of the big time hitters are striking out way more than their counterparts because they are trying to hit the HR rather than the single.  Smoltz was just trying to say, in the Smoltz way, that HR's are great but not if you strike out the other half of the time.  If we started counting the strike outs against the all consuming 150+mph exit velocity then maybe guys would avoid striking out more and get the hits the teams needs.

2. Counting up the balls and dividing by four is just silly.  If a pitcher throws three strikes in a row too often he won't be pitching for long, or in the MLB.

I replied to the context of the post since I didn't listen to Smoltz personally. The comment is still too simple.

1. Today's hitters strike out more because they face more pitchers per game and more pitchers with greater velocity (ex- 7th inning set up man, 8th inning set up man, 9th inning closer).

2. HR power changes the game with one swing and is highly coveted by MLB front offices. If you want high contract rate, draft high contact rate players. More and more teams desire hitters who are patient and willing to run counts deep (high OBP). Getting to two strikes will automatically lead to more K.

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