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Hey guys I normally don’t come in here but just popped in here to check on bats for my son and saw this thread. I can help fill in some gaps for you.

FWIW my son just finished his first year of Varsity ball and I have a stalker and log pitchers for the team. I do not have the book here but will go through it and come back with more details, but from memory this is what I have seen. This is for very competitive Division 1 & 2 baseball in Southern California.

Average FB for team’s number 1 & 2 pitchers: 80-83
(Saw a couple in the 83-85 range)

These are the “league guys” not the Saturday starters.

Numbers 3+ (Saturday starters and relievers): 78-81

There are always anomalies but this was pretty typical. I also saw guys who were effective throwing 72. Our top reliever throws 72 but has the second lowest ERA on the team. He is not a starter but a situational reliever and is very effective 1 time (maybe 2) through the order. Our number 1 is a big lefty (6’4” 220) Sr who normally throws 80-81, but hits his spots and has one of the lowest ERA’s in our league. (around 1.4)

Elite starters: 85-91

These are the few elite guys who end up in the draft or go to the top 25 D1 colleges. After 35 games this season I saw 3 of these guys. (2 on the same team) These are the guys you read about in your local papers, and have scouts at their games. 91 was the top velocity I recorded.

Upcoming underclassmen:

I have seen one sophomore throw 85-87 and there are three in our league are in the 83 area +/- a little. Two are the number 1’s on their team and the other is the number 2.

Hope this helps.
Last edited by BOF
BOF,
We had 2 of the 85-91 types. They totalled 12 innings between them. One, a junior, had control problems due to lack of innings more than anything else and the other, a young senior, was very effective but simply wasn't given a chance. Meanwhile the mid to upper 70s junkballer with a 4.7+ seven inning ERA got about 30 innings and led the team in losses. Guess who's dad coached the head coach's son's little league team?

Their velocities were 86-87 touching 88, with little movement, and 85-87 working with good movement respectively. The velocities were recorded by scouts on Stalkers throwing to hitters in games.

Our #1, a senior, typically threw 83-84 although he dropped off later in the season after being over used. He had the ability to touch 87 although I never saw that in a game. Very good ERA although he gave up a lot of unearned runs due to working backward a lot. Walks tend to lead to unearned runs. Our #2, a senior, topped out at about 81 and threw more sliders than fastballs. Not surprisingly his arm was toast by the end of the season. His results were mediocre at best, especially against stronger hitting teams. The last few games of the season since they hadn't made any effort to get the talented pitchers any innings they used a mid to upper 70s lefty with good control and a decent curve. He was pretty effective and can be expected to be a slightly above average pitcher next year as a senior in a down year for the Marmonte league.
Last edited by CADad
2 of the upper 80's kids I saw were from a Marmonte team expected to go deep in the playoff's. The other is Valdez, who you know and is expected to go pretty high in the draft next year. I have heard quotes of him throwing 94, but in three games I never saw it. Actually I thought he was more effective in the 85-87 range where is ball had more movement. Regardless he is quite a player.

I don't know if it is just me but there seemed to be a lot fewer high 80's kids this year on the West Coast. I have heard this from several people and observed it also. That said there are a number of dynamite Sophmores coming up in the Pacific View, Marmonte and Channel Leagues that have the potential to be dominant type pitchers in the next two years.

OK guys I'm done posting in your area. For those of you in playoff's GOOD LUCK!
From the WWBA 16u in Atlanta this year:

15 guys threw 90+ top was 94
17 guys threw 89
23 guys threw 88
35 guys threw 87
44 guys threw 86
51 threw 85

PG listed velocities of 78 or more for this tournament. There were 952 pitchers throwing 78+. I would imagine there were many more throwing below 78, so I can't come up with a total average. The average for this group was 82. Kids who threw 85+ comprised 19% of this group. It would probably be a smaller percentage if they included all velocities.

Keep in mind, this was a 16u tournament which included rising Juniors, Sophmores and possibly Freshmen. There were no Seniors in this tournament, just 2011 graduates and below.
Last edited by bballman
Take 3 or 4 mph off those speeds to see what speeds they could have some command at. Then realize that these are the elite. So take another 5 mph or so off and you've got average HS pitching velocities for this age group. Add about 3 mph back to get them back up to 18u on average, so in the end take about 5 mph off the average and you've got an average HS velocity of about 77.2 mph as the 151 who were 85 and above don't change the average that much and the overall average is 82.2 mph not including those under 78. You could probably add 1 or 2 mph to get to the average for HS seniors only.
When you discuss anything high school you have to look at the demographics. Is is a baseball hotbed or is it the middle of nowhere? Is the area metro or rural? Is it a large high school or a small one?

My son plays for a large high school in a cold region. The top three pitchers last year threw 82-84. They've gone on to D2 and D3 ball. In our conference if a hitter can't turn on an 82-84 mph fastball he doesn't have a chance against half the regular pitchers. The first place team had three guys 85-88mph. The school is huge.

On the other hand when we went to watch a friend play in the small school classification district final, I think a good 14U travel team would have smoked their pitchers. It looked like 73-77.
Last edited by RJM
We have lots of statistics on these type things. Unfgortunately our statistics would be geared towards the higher talent level, rather than over all numbers.

Most recently we completed the PG WWBA Championship in Jupiter a couple weeks ago.

There were 85 teams. After averaging out all the fastball velocities of all the pitchers on each team, we found that...

all but two teams averaged over 80 mph.

75 teams averaged over 82 mph.

64 teams averaged over 83 mph.

59 teams averaged over 84 mph.

51 teams averaged over 85 mph.

41 teams averaged over 86 mph.

25 teams averaged over 87 mph.

13 teams averaged over 88 mph.

8 teams averaged over 89 mph.

5 teams averaged over 90 mph.

2 teams averaged over 91 mph.

Out of all those who pitched in that event... 127 topped out at 90 mph or better. 331 pitchers topped out at 87 or above. This was out of 817 pitchers who threw at that event. About 50 of the 817 pitchers topped out below 80 mph. The average top fastball for every pitcher at the 2009 WWBA in Jupiter was 85.25 mph.

Not sure if this information is interesting to anyone or not?
Having a son who just entered high School I find this information very interesting. As a pitcher if he wants to think about pitching at the next level or at least helping his cause greatly he knows he has to work hard to try and get his velocity to at least 85mph. Which as a lefty would be really good..not great but good! Especially if he has to go the route of finding a team to add him to their roster so he can attend the Jupiter tournament or beg you to put him on one of the PG teams Razz.
I live in NH and the upper eschelon of the pitchers probably cruise in the 80-85 range. The "average" varsity starter would probably be in the 75-80 range IMO. Sure the big guys might hit 90 once and a blue moon but for the most part they cruise low to mid 80's. Remember we lose 4 plus months to the winter so you can't long toss year round etc... We have had a few 90 plus pitchers that have made it to the big leagues with Chris Carpenter probably being the best known at the moment. That type of pitcher only shows up in NH a 1/2 dozen times a decade though I'd bet.
redsox8191.. those in the north are NOT at a disadvantage when it comes to pitching. My son grew up in a "cold-weather" area (Washington State)and yes, he long-tossed year-round since age 11 or 12. It can be done. In Bum, Jr.'s case he did it by throwing against a racquetball court wall. Others can rig up a net in their basement and simulate throwing for distance.. either way.. where there is a will, there is a way.

Washington State is #7 in players drafted, and most of them are pitchers. These players play 80-100 games a season, then in the offseason continue to train indoors. In my son's case, he also continued to throw. As for velocity, the average senior is 80-81.. the average h.s. fastball 78.. but as PG Staff once pointed out, what good is it to be "average"?
Nice post Bum. Average is taking all the pitchers that pitch and then coming up with a number. Of course your elite guys are the 90 plus guys. Then your upper tier guys are your upper 80'guys. Your above average guys are your mid 80's guys and your average would be 80.

I would say from my experience that the average HS varsity pitcher is 77-80. And its the reason when someone pitches at 84-86 everyone swears he is throwing 90.

Its very easy to be average. Just do what everyone else is doing and use them as an example of what you want to be.
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Long Island Rules Baby!!!!!
quote:
Originally posted by SultanofSwat:
Based on PG reports and a recent statewide showcase, there are approx. only 20-25 HS kids (not just Srs) in all divisions in our state that max at 85+.

I see low 80s in 5A for the typical starter.


I am curious about the report you mentioned. Can you tell me how to look it up?

It seems like at showcases and PG tournaments, you start to feel like if you aren't at 89, you arean't worth looking at!!

Ya I think it all depends on your area. I am a freshman and I top out at 74 avg is about 69. The sophmores usually throw high 70s and occasionally reach the 80s the junior throw mid to low 80s anwe've have 2 seniors that throw 90 consecutively and the others seniors throw high to mid 80s im a catcher and the coach clicked every pitcher including me so I know roughly everyone's pitch speed.

 

I have a 10U select team that all throw 90MPH.  No, not really.

 

80 is your average HS Fastball.  I've seen kids throw harder and get hit pretty hard and I've seen kids throw slower that kids just couldn't hit.  I've also seen kids throw 90 that usually ended in a one to two hitter and seen kids throw 75 that got shalacked.  It's always interesting to watch HS pitchers.  Some of them are so good.

This is probably selectively biased toward higher speeds (because generally only better players attend and get measured by PG), but the player profile pages on Perfect Game report where a kid's FB velo stands relative to his class.  According to PG, the average velo for the Class of 2014 is 80 mph; for the Class of 2015 it is 79; and for the Class of 2016 it is 76. I suspect if the pool of players being "averaged" was all HS pitchers instead of the subset of HS pitchers who attend and pitch at a PG event, those numbers would be a tick or two lower across the board.

I think any reported velocity needs to be adjusted down 3-5 mph depending if the parent is the one taking the reading. 

 

My son is a freshman this year and has always thrown hard in league play and actually was the top pitcher (velocity, location, and pitch command) on his travel team.  I have never had his speed gauged but will starting this year or maybe next year to target improvements.  I just hope someone has a reliable radar gun I can use.  

Originally Posted by baseballmania:

I think any reported velocity needs to be adjusted down 3-5 mph depending if the parent is the one taking the reading. 

 

My son is a freshman this year and has always thrown hard in league play and actually was the top pitcher (velocity, location, and pitch command) on his travel team.  I have never had his speed gauged but will starting this year or maybe next year to target improvements.  I just hope someone has a reliable radar gun I can use.  

Alot of phones have a radar app on them.  My kid threw 108 last high school season...i think with growth and stronger arm he will break 115 this year.  Woot!

Originally Posted by monkeyboy:
Originally Posted by baseballmania:

I think any reported velocity needs to be adjusted down 3-5 mph depending if the parent is the one taking the reading. 

 

My son is a freshman this year and has always thrown hard in league play and actually was the top pitcher (velocity, location, and pitch command) on his travel team.  I have never had his speed gauged but will starting this year or maybe next year to target improvements.  I just hope someone has a reliable radar gun I can use.  

Alot of phones have a radar app on them.  My kid threw 108 last high school season...i think with growth and stronger arm he will break 115 this year.  Woot!

My phone app said HS Jr. was @ 99...then I looked again and notice I had my phone up side down.......haha ha.

Last edited by jlaro

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