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Which of the only the following would tell you the most about a hitter?

 

Straight batting average, batting average with no runners on, batting average with runners on, or batting average with runners in scoring position?

 

The reason I’m asking is I just heard the Indians’ announcer talking about Michael Brantly. They were saying that although everyone in the game knows BA isn’t really a meaningful statistic without a lot of other things taken in context, Brantly is among the AL leaders in BA, BAWRISP, and BAWRO. They didn’t mention BAWNRO, but to me it just makes sense that if the other 3 have any kind of meaning, it should have some meaning as well.

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None of those is really going to tell you more about a hitter than the others, generally speaking.  Individual variances in those are going to be dominated by random noise.

 

MLBers in 2014 hit 251/314/386

With bases empty it was 245/303/379

With runners on it was 259/327/397

With RISP it was 253/322/386

 

Those aren't especially different, and I wouldn't really expect them to be except for some random variation.  I suspect the RISP increase in OBP is related to the percentage of the time 1B is open, and that the slight advantage to runners on numbers is selection bias, since guys who are batting with runners on are more often facing a pitcher who's stuff has already begun to deteriorate in that game.

Originally Posted by jacjacatk:

None of those is really going to tell you more about a hitter than the others, generally speaking.  Individual variances in those are going to be dominated by random noise.

 

MLBers in 2014 hit 251/314/386

With bases empty it was 245/303/379

With runners on it was 259/327/397

With RISP it was 253/322/386

 

Those aren't especially different, and I wouldn't really expect them to be except for some random variation.  I suspect the RISP increase in OBP is related to the percentage of the time 1B is open, and that the slight advantage to runners on numbers is selection bias, since guys who are batting with runners on are more often facing a pitcher who's stuff has already begun to deteriorate in that game.

 

The way I read that is, you think pretty much the same way I do, that they’re all fairly useless as far as telling much about a hitter.

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