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Interesting data.

A better measure, IMO, would be the number recruited in a given year divided by the number of seniors playing high school baseball. The reason that would be better, I think, is because I wonder about large classification schools in some states having only JV and V, with no freshman team. Consider two schools:

  • School A: three HS teams (V, JV, freshman), 60 total participants (20 freshmen, 20 sophs, 10 juniors, 10 seniors), 6 kids in the senior class recruited to D1. NCAA stats show a 10% recruitment rate (60 participants; 6 recruits).
  • School B: two HS teams (V and JV), 40 total participants (10 per class). 5 kids in the senior class recruited to D1. NCAA stats show a 12.5% recruitment rate (40 participants; 5 recruits). 

In fact, School A is sending 60% of its seniors to D1, but School B is sending 50% of its seniors. The lack of a freshman team shouldn't change that reality.

I don't know how widespread it is in every state, but some really big, powerhouse schools in Georgia, at the AAAAAAA level (e.g., perennial power Walton High School, this year's state champion Etowah, this year's runner-up Woodstock) only have two teams (V and JV). That would be very unusual at the large classification level in California (at least in CIF-SS). 

No idea if or how it would change the numbers. And clearly states like Florida, Georgia, and VIrginia are strong in baseball. But I wonder if this particular stat is an apples vs. oranges thing . . .

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