I've been a lurker for a little while now, finally signed up since it's seems to be time for my 2020 to figure out his baseball future and there is a ton of info here. Having read a lot on here, it would seem that if a kid isn't 6'2" and 200 pounds, throwing 350mph, running a sub-5.0 sixty, showing consistent 4-digit exit velos, at 12 years old...and doesn't come from a family that can drop 6-digits into travel expenses/showcases, and isn't from the sunny areas of the country, then he might as well quit baseball and take up recreational stamp collecting.
Realistically, does a kid with the following attributes have a chance of anything better than bar-league softball?
He's 15 years, 3 months old. 5'11, 205 pounds; Bats left, throws left; outfield velo (best): 82, infield (best) 80; LHP with very good off-speed stuff and good movement on his 75-78mph FB; exit velo (average): 86, (best): 95. Ran a 6.9 sixty, 3.9 home-to-first. (Measurements are the averages from 3 different tryouts and are independent)
Should I start preparing him to have his dreams crushed and heart broken, or is there any hope?
Come on! He's in a great position, commencing with current off season to get his butt stronger, improve arm mechanics, keep hitting. My 2018, currently 17 and 8 months old is only now 5'10, 173 lbs: threw 78-80 across IF two years ago, exit velo was sitting 80ish, ran 7.1 best verified. NOW: throws 90 across IF, Exit velo 93, 6.9 runner and finally trending lower. Plenty of mid D1 interest-offers, but pursuing a higher academic route, which has been its own quagmire (again timing plays a big part).
His interest in whatever schools, his academic chops, family budget will dictate a list of colleges to pursue. Given his measurables can he play? Does his play stand out?
We parents aren't dream killers, but we should be sprinkling suggestions of alternate paths and plan B's. The recruiting path is a lot about timing: when you hit a certain physical size and how it meshes with your baseball skills which were on show that particular day.