Lamest off-season ever?

I completely agree - I had knee surgery the day before Thanksgiving and have been on crutches ever since and still have 3 more weeks to go (total 8 weeks).  Only thing I was looking for was college football, reading a few books and see who went where.  

So far haven't finished a book, have watched 2 games and nobody has really went anywhere.  Worst offseason ever

Lamest, so far. January should be very interesting. I'll be glued to MLB Tonight after work every day. At some point the players have to be telling their agents "find me a chair before the music stops or the money runs out".

C'mon COACH, not 1 book through holiday breaks?

It's coming.  It has to.  You can put together two full squads that could each challenge for a championship with the available unsigned FA's.  They may not get paid what they want but I doubt that the majority of these guys are going to sit this next season out.

Yeah, I suppose you're right, but probably nothing until next week.  I follow a list on Twitter with both local and national writers who get this stuff early and it's dead quiet right now. 

Ken Rosenthal keeps linking to his piece on Rich Dauer, the Astros coach who nearly died after their WS celebration; it's scary but well worth the read.

https://theathletic.com/195052...beloved-coachs-life/

Martinez and Hosmer are good ball players. But they are not the superstars Boras presents them to be. The rumor is the Red Sox and Boras got to 27-31M per year for Martinez. But the Sox only want a four year contract. Boras wants seven years. The Sox decided two years of Moreland for 13M is a better deal than seven years of Hosmer for 200M. They have a slugging first base prospect in AA.

It turned out not to matter Hosmer’s girlfriend lives in Boston. She’s a sports desk anchor Barbie for NESN, the network that covers the Sox and Bruins. 

Until Martinez and Hosmer sign the value for other players isn’t established. 

JCG posted:

The luxury tax and compensation rules are acting as a de-facto salary cap and depressing the the free agent market.

I think players need to strike at the next cba negotiation. Mlb can't limit the veteran salaries and still keep the young player salaries low.

For years the agreement was that the union basically sells the young guys to get the veterans paid and it worked, veterans got overpaid, young players underpaid and so in the end both owners and veterans made a good  business while the young guys suffered.

But now the clubs got greedy. They still pay the top veterans really well but the new smart GMs have stopped paying the middling veterans because they feel they get the same or similar production out of young guys.

It is of course smart by the GMs but the system of ripping of the young guys can't work if just the top20 percent of veterans get paid and the rest gets shitty contracts.

So clubs need to make a decision, either force the GMs to waste money on mediocre veterans with kind of a salary floor or something or pay the younger guys better (or less control years).

The clubs have the upper hand and players can't expect their share to rise but the share also can't drop even more, the players now really get ripped off. 

The fans don't see that and in fact think the players get overpaid but that is only like the top 20% of the veterans and you have to consider how revenue of the league exploded.

There also is the issue of minor league salary but we shouldn't mix that up since they are not part of the union.

 

 

 

Dominik85 posted:
JCG posted:

The luxury tax and compensation rules are acting as a de-facto salary cap and depressing the the free agent market.

I think players need to strike at the next cba negotiation. Mlb can't limit the veteran salaries and still keep the young player salaries low.

For years the agreement was that the union basically sells the young guys to get the veterans paid and it worked, veterans got overpaid, young players underpaid and so in the end both owners and veterans made a good  business while the young guys suffered.

But now the clubs got greedy. They still pay the top veterans really well but the new smart GMs have stopped paying the middling veterans because they feel they get the same or similar production out of young guys.

It is of course smart by the GMs but the system of ripping of the young guys can't work if just the top20 percent of veterans get paid and the rest gets shitty contracts.

So clubs need to make a decision, either force the GMs to waste money on mediocre veterans with kind of a salary floor or something or pay the younger guys better (or less control years).

The clubs have the upper hand and players can't expect their share to rise but the share also can't drop even more, the players now really get ripped off. 

The fans don't see that and in fact think the players get overpaid but that is only like the top 20% of the veterans and you have to consider how revenue of the league exploded.

There also is the issue of minor league salary but we shouldn't mix that up since they are not part of the union.

 

 

 

now the clubs got greedy? because they aren't willing to give a guy a 7 year 225m deal? they want to limit it to 4yrs and a 100m...I fully support players getting whatever they can but please...there are more guys make 8-12 m per year then you can shake a stick at.

"the players now really get ripped off" LOL ok good luck with that argument.

Nobody cares about the minors, not the owners, not the players and not the fans. that won't change anytime in the near future.

Dominik85 posted:

What do you think? There was stanton and ohtani but  apart from that almost nothing happened so far.

Stanton was a Marlins salary reset and salary offload for a player still under contract control.  Ohtani is an international player that was shopping for a team.   The market rules are different for these players so their numbers really don't apply that much to traditional free agents where the Hot Stove activity usually is.   The lone market exception has been relief pitchers where there is/was a lot of activity but the dollar amount (and risk) is somewhat reduced over a pool of many players.  Teams recognize they need relief pitchers so they grab a few...kind of like stocking stuffers.  The big presents under the tree are still missing.

I agree with RJM.  Until Boras, JD Martinez and Hosmer come to some (realization) understanding or agreement to set the market there is going to continue to be a free agent market log jam.  So far, nobody is blinking.    No doubt the Boras-machine will crank up soon, and we'll start hearing about mystery teams.   Front office's will tell the market that they are done shopping, and they are ready to start Spring training with their current roster.   All will be quiet until the first deal is struck then it will be bedlam.  Then we'll find out which GM's are being genuinely prudent, disciplined or just playing possum with the salary cap.

As always, JMO.

 

fenwaysouth posted:
Dominik85 posted:

What do you think? There was stanton and ohtani but  apart from that almost nothing happened so far.

Stanton was a Marlins salary reset and salary offload for a player still under contract control.  Ohtani is an international player that was shopping for a team.   The market rules are different for these players so their numbers really don't apply that much to traditional free agents where the Hot Stove activity usually is.   The lone market exception has been relief pitchers where there is/was a lot of activity but the dollar amount (and risk) is somewhat reduced over a pool of many players.  Teams recognize they need relief pitchers so they grab a few...kind of like stocking stuffers.  The big presents under the tree are still missing.

 

...

 

Yeah but the spending this year on non-closer relief pitchers is intriguing to me... several middlemen and set-up men are getting $9M+ per on multi-year deals.  That is approaching 10% of some clubs' total payroll.  

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2...-morrow-tommy-hunter

I think Francona's use of Miller with the Indians has really put the spotlight on the importance of a shutdown bridge.  But I think you really have to be SHUTDOWN to warrant this kind of money for an occasional hold.  I know we can't really think completely in terms of proportion here (everyday player innings vs RP's) but it's hard not to, at least to some extent.  

Every time Bryan Shaw entered a close game, most Tribe fans groaned... despite the decent ERA and durability.  He was not known to be good in clutch situations, including playoffs.  3 years, $27M !! 

The average MLB salary was $4 million last year. The rookies, 2nd and 3rd year players make $500K - $600K, so the average veteran salary is probably more like $6 million . . . so as crazy as some of these salaries look, it's a function of the growth of MLB revenues -- they exceeded $10 billion in 2017, up from $9.5 billion in 2016.

Agreed cabbagedad and good point.  RP's use by MLB managers and their value is changing ever so slowly.  I actually did find this to be an intriguing development in this labor market with "overpriced" (my opinion) position players sitting on the sideline taking their direction from Boras.   The big salaries are still out there for those that can command them, but I honestly don't see Hosmer or Martinez getting long term/hug contracts.  In contrast, possibly teams are trying to gobble up available RPs, and figuring the rest out later.   That is kind of what it looks like now.   Possibly this is the big news this year that it is going to be the lamest off-season for free agent position players as Dominik85 mentions.  It really is looking that way.  Don't get me wrong, I think Hosmer and Martinez are very good players and they will make a good addition to whatever team signs them.   But is always about value and getting the fan base stirred up.  It seems like everybody is sitting back and saying..."meh".

old_school posted:
Dominik85 posted:
JCG posted:

The luxury tax and compensation rules are acting as a de-facto salary cap and depressing the the free agent market.

I think players need to strike at the next cba negotiation. Mlb can't limit the veteran salaries and still keep the young player salaries low.

For years the agreement was that the union basically sells the young guys to get the veterans paid and it worked, veterans got overpaid, young players underpaid and so in the end both owners and veterans made a good  business while the young guys suffered.

But now the clubs got greedy. They still pay the top veterans really well but the new smart GMs have stopped paying the middling veterans because they feel they get the same or similar production out of young guys.

It is of course smart by the GMs but the system of ripping of the young guys can't work if just the top20 percent of veterans get paid and the rest gets shitty contracts.

So clubs need to make a decision, either force the GMs to waste money on mediocre veterans with kind of a salary floor or something or pay the younger guys better (or less control years).

The clubs have the upper hand and players can't expect their share to rise but the share also can't drop even more, the players now really get ripped off. 

The fans don't see that and in fact think the players get overpaid but that is only like the top 20% of the veterans and you have to consider how revenue of the league exploded.

There also is the issue of minor league salary but we shouldn't mix that up since they are not part of the union.

 

 

 

now the clubs got greedy? because they aren't willing to give a guy a 7 year 225m deal? they want to limit it to 4yrs and a 100m...I fully support players getting whatever they can but please...there are more guys make 8-12 m per year then you can shake a stick at.

"the players now really get ripped off" LOL ok good luck with that argument.

Nobody cares about the minors, not the owners, not the players and not the fans. that won't change anytime in the near future.

Salaries may seem high but those are only a few exceptions. Players make millions but mlb is making billions. The owners should make some profit but the players share of mlb total revenue has been dropping for 15 years.

 

Wrote this article some time ago for some numbers

https://www.fangraphs.com/comm...he-owners-long-term/

 

You are free to do that but the numbers clearly show that  players share of baseball revenue is going down. The very top salaries still increase but everywhere else salaries are pretty much stagnating while mlb revenue continues to rise.

 

Here are the numbers

https://www.fangraphs.com/blog...mlbpa-has-a-problem/

 I know it is hard to feel sorry  for sub 30 year old millionaires but I have a hard time feeling sorry for the 60+ year old billionaires who own the mlb teams either.

I don't think it is the mega deals. They can turn out bad but they will still happen, machado and harper are going to sign 12 year, 400m contracts.

The guys who are mostly affected are middling to ok free agents and older guys.

Teams are reluctant to sign guys past age 36 or so because that is when aging really accelerates and rightfully so because most of those contracts are bad. There are some exceptions who work out well (cruz, murphy and especially beltre who has probably  the biggest bargain contract ever for a post 30 yo player - I think see signed something like 5 years at 100m but was worth almost twice as much).

The big deals will still happen but older players are middling guys will have to fight for short contracts.

The smartest man in baseball the last 50 years was Marvin Miller - He foresaw George Stienbrenner but maybe not Hal.  And the new metrics never were on his radar but I suspect he would have understood them sooner than most and adjusted.  As long as boobs like George were around a limited supply of high end free agents was the thumb on the scale for all player salaries to drift upward.

It is unlikely Miller ever would have afforded the owners the Governor of a salary cap or tax without the sport being endangered first.  So with the emergence of Hal Stienbrenner and the new metrics baseball has learned the lesson of the NFL which is to pay the a few dozen superstars and mix them with cheap young players before they reach maximum salaries.  Wipeout the veteran players that can chew up big money for a WAR about equal to that of younger players.  

What the MLBPA should be doing is pressing for arbitration at 3 years instead of 6.  If they fail the career of MLB players will become like that of the NFL - 4/5 years and done unless you become a superstar.  It is also possible that baseball owners after forking over big cash for Panda, AROD, David Wright and others might have learned the lesson of the 7 to 10 year contract.  Can Billionaires learn lessons? I am sure a few can - they all didn't steal their money - a few of them might actually know what they are doing. 

Arbitration is after 3 years, free agency is after 6. Don't think the owners would agree to free agengcy after 3 unless the players pay a huge compensation price.

Also it isn't really the owners knowing what they are doing but their ivy league trainined GMs they have hired. Owners just want to pay as little as possible, the GMs decide how budget is distributed.

Dominik85 posted:

Arbitration is after 3 years, free agency is after 6. Don't think the owners would agree to free agengcy after 3 unless the players pay a huge compensation price.

Also it isn't really the owners knowing what they are doing but their ivy league trainined GMs they have hired. Owners just want to pay as little as possible, the GMs decide how budget is distributed.

because owners are who have massed the wealth to own teams don't get it right? They are are just smart enough to hire someone who really understands...

You obviously hate ownership and at times there is plenty to hate but IMO you have lost objectivity and reality. Ultimately being sussesful in business has little do with what most people deem as smart. 

MLB's cold-hearted economics chill the hot stove, puts the freeze on elite players

"We haven’t had a more boring and dreary off-season since the 1994-1995 work stoppage.

It has been 62 days since the Houston Astros won their first World Series championship in a seven-game thriller over the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the only real drama we’ve seen is Shohei Ohtani signing with the Los Angeles Angels and Giancarlo Stanton traded to the New York Yankees.

The hot stove market, with 136 free agents still unemployed, barely has the flicker of a pilot light."

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story...uxury-tax/995440001/

I do think next years class is part of this equation. I think the bigger part is SCott Boras controling the top of the class. He is a very effective agent but there is little doubt he is overreaching his whole stable this year. He thinks he controls all the supply so he will get price....he is finding that reality is slightly different. 

Outfielder J.D. Martinez reportedly has a five-year contract offer from the Boston Red Sox on the table, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Martinez apparently wants a better offer than that, however.

According to Nightengale, "The Red Sox won't give Martinez a seven-year, $210 million contract and aren't about to start bidding against themselves."

Jon Morosi of MLB.com noted that the Red Sox are the favorites to land Martinez.

Really surprised the Orioles have not tried to get something (anything!) for Machado right now rather than waiting for the All-Star break where they will get significantly less for a rental or nothing at the end of the year.   Orioles need pitching in the worst kind of way.  Someone just tweeted on CamdenDepot that....Last year, Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jeremey Hellickson threw 262 innings with an ERA of 7.45.   Since 1991, positional players have logged 284 innings with an ERA of 6.84.  If true that is truly dire straits. 

Apparently the orioles owner is really paranoid that machado will go to the Yankees, he won't trade with them and also is afraid that otherthe teams flip him to the Yankees who have an obvious need at third.

Of course that is stupid but he is an owner and no baseball expert and the emotional factor might weigh more heavily to him.

Cole is two years from free agency. He’s not a game changer. McCutcheon is one year from free agency, thirty-one and hasn’t made the all star team in two years. He’s on the downside of his career. Neither guy is worth stud prospects under the circumstances.

RJM posted:

Cole is two years from free agency. He’s not a game changer. McCutcheon is one year from free agency, thirty and hasn’t made the all star team in two years. He’s on the downside of his career. Neither guy is worth stud prospects under the circumstances.

Cole is starting depth for Astros.  3rd/4th starter.  Astros will change how he pitches.  He will move to about 50% breaking balls.  Just a guess, but he has been faced with being traded for a year and a half.  I think the new scenery will give him a boost.

Musgrove will be very good for the Pirates.  Not sure about Moran (former 1st round pick), he seemed to stay a "top prospect" for a long time without advancing for Miami and Houston.  Feliz has a big arm, but was exposed a little when brought up to MLB.  Never heard of the fourth guy they traded.

Great trade for Houston.  Didn't really give anything up, got a decent starter with upside.

Bryan Reynolds in the McCutcheon trade.... potential at least

 

YEARTEAMLGLEVELGABRHTB2B3BHRRBIBBIBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPSGO/AO
2016SKNWLA(Short)401542848771215301104120.312.368.500.8681.23
2016AUGSALA(Full)16631120285018312010.317.348.444.7931.88
2016[-]2 teams-Minors5621739681051716381416130.313.363.484.8471.36
2017SJCALA(Adv)12149172153227269106337010653.312.364.462.8261.41
Minors Career[+]3 teams Minors17770811122133243101610151116783.312.363.469.8321.40

I saw one guy had Reynolds as #2 in the SFG farm system, though I think most had him more like 5 or 6.  #2 round draft choice. Vandy player. Obviously a high average hitter but good size and seems to be hitting with more power as he's moved through MILB.   Could be a good to very good MLB player.  You never know.  And Crick as a former first rounder hasn't quite  lived up to potential so far, but he's got a live arm and could also be very good down the road.

As a Giants fan I like the deal, but I think it's very possible that 2-3 years from now Pirate fans will be much happier with this trade than Giants fans.

 

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