What % of high school baseball players can hit home runs?

Matt13 posted:
bobbyaguho posted:

My 2014 son's team hit 11.He hit 7 of them(2 opposite field). 2015 team hit 10 and 2016 team hit 4. Field dimensions 325 down the lines,370 in the gaps and 400 in center. Most of the HS fields they played on were similar in dimensions.The big difference was the micro climates.Schools closer to the Bay and ocean often had heavy marine layer and the ocean breeze blowing in which kept more balls in the park.The schools out in the East County have a much different desert like climate.The ball really carries well out there.I suspect our team would have had 20 plus HR's if we had played out there.

 

FYI--balls travel farther in humid air...

Matt13,

I'm not sure where you live but when it's Spring time (HS baseball season) here in coastal SoCal, the Marine layer with it's cool heavy air coupled with a breeze blowing in from the bay or ocean does impact balls hit in the air.It knocks them down and keeps them in the park. Son played on almost every field in SD County and a bunch in Orange & L.A.County too. The fields near the bay or ocean have much different climates than those that are 30+ miles inland.

I just finished throwing BP to my son in the cage . It's almost 5:00 pm and there is a heavy marine layer and the wind is gusting off the bay. Not conducive for homeruns. If the Padres were playing at home this evening the chances of a seeing a HR would be slim.If you have ever been to Petco for an evening game in April,May or June you would know this to be true.

Another example. Last night the Giants were playing the Dodgers at ATT park. Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey both crushed balls to the fence off of Kershaw late in the game.The cool heavy ocean air and breeze from the bay kept those balls in the park.If this was Chase Field in PHX those are HR's.Giants would have won 3-2.Instead, they lost 2-1.

 

2020dad posted:
bobbyaguho posted:

My 2014 son's team hit 11.He hit 7 of them(2 opposite field). 2015 team hit 10 and 2016 team hit 4. Field dimensions 325 down the lines,370 in the gaps and 400 in center. Most of the HS fields they played on were similar in dimensions.The big difference was the micro climates.Schools closer to the Bay and ocean often had heavy marine layer and the ocean breeze blowing in which kept more balls in the park.The schools out in the East County have a much different desert like climate.The ball really carries well out there.I suspect our team would have had 20 plus HR's if we had played out there.

The 2014 senior class has four players that are playing in college.

D1 :RHP

D2: MIF

D3: OF(son),RHP

Either you have power or you don't.Either you have plus bat speed or you don't. BBCOR bats have never been an excuse for lack of power production. Many coaches still whine about them though.

 

 

 

BBCOR is a reality. I think everybody at all age levels should swing bbcor or wood so I am a fan. But to say essentially it makes no difference...  The old bats from 15 years ago probably add 50 to 60 feet maybe more!  It's a huge difference. And really didn't bbcor come around less than 10 years ago?  Anything before bbcor is not even close to a fair comparison. 

2020dad,

BBCOR was mandated here in SoCal beginning with the 2011 HS season which was my son's freshman season.It's all he ever used in HS baseball.The summers were/are wood bat leagues. I'm with you. I like wood and BBCOR .

What I don't like is when coaches blame their team's lack of offensive prowess on the bats. I still hear some HS coaches grumble about this.It's even more embarrassing when a college coach whines about it. The bats are not the problem.The hitting philosophy of the coaching staff  and the players recruited are the real culprit for lack of production. Again, either a player has REAL power or he doesn't.

 

 

 

bobbyaguho posted:
2020dad posted:
bobbyaguho posted:

My 2014 son's team hit 11.He hit 7 of them(2 opposite field). 2015 team hit 10 and 2016 team hit 4. Field dimensions 325 down the lines,370 in the gaps and 400 in center. Most of the HS fields they played on were similar in dimensions.The big difference was the micro climates.Schools closer to the Bay and ocean often had heavy marine layer and the ocean breeze blowing in which kept more balls in the park.The schools out in the East County have a much different desert like climate.The ball really carries well out there.I suspect our team would have had 20 plus HR's if we had played out there.

The 2014 senior class has four players that are playing in college.

D1 :RHP

D2: MIF

D3: OF(son),RHP

Either you have power or you don't.Either you have plus bat speed or you don't. BBCOR bats have never been an excuse for lack of power production. Many coaches still whine about them though.

 

 

 

BBCOR is a reality. I think everybody at all age levels should swing bbcor or wood so I am a fan. But to say essentially it makes no difference...  The old bats from 15 years ago probably add 50 to 60 feet maybe more!  It's a huge difference. And really didn't bbcor come around less than 10 years ago?  Anything before bbcor is not even close to a fair comparison. 

2020dad,

BBCOR was mandated here in SoCal beginning with the 2011 HS season which was my son's freshman season.It's all he ever used in HS baseball.The summers were/are wood bat leagues. I'm with you. I like wood and BBCOR .

What I don't like is when coaches blame their team's lack of offensive prowess on the bats. I still hear some HS coaches grumble about this.It's even more embarrassing when a college coach whines about it. The bats are not the problem.The hitting philosophy of the coaching staff  and the players recruited are the real culprit for lack of production. Again, either a player has REAL power or he doesn't.

 

 

 

That is not true at all, power can be trained, getting stronger, changing mechanics, and overload underload training can help power. Power is from bat speed, which you can train. It's not all genetics.

Also how would scouts judge power on a 2-8 scale?

bobbyaguho posted:
Matt13 posted:
bobbyaguho posted:

My 2014 son's team hit 11.He hit 7 of them(2 opposite field). 2015 team hit 10 and 2016 team hit 4. Field dimensions 325 down the lines,370 in the gaps and 400 in center. Most of the HS fields they played on were similar in dimensions.The big difference was the micro climates.Schools closer to the Bay and ocean often had heavy marine layer and the ocean breeze blowing in which kept more balls in the park.The schools out in the East County have a much different desert like climate.The ball really carries well out there.I suspect our team would have had 20 plus HR's if we had played out there.

 

FYI--balls travel farther in humid air...

Matt13,

I'm not sure where you live but when it's Spring time (HS baseball season) here in coastal SoCal, the Marine layer with it's cool heavy air coupled with a breeze blowing in from the bay or ocean does impact balls hit in the air.It knocks them down and keeps them in the park. Son played on almost every field in SD County and a bunch in Orange & L.A.County too. The fields near the bay or ocean have much different climates than those that are 30+ miles inland.

I just finished throwing BP to my son in the cage . It's almost 5:00 pm and there is a heavy marine layer and the wind is gusting off the bay. Not conducive for homeruns. If the Padres were playing at home this evening the chances of a seeing a HR would be slim.If you have ever been to Petco for an evening game in April,May or June you would know this to be true.

Another example. Last night the Giants were playing the Dodgers at ATT park. Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey both crushed balls to the fence off of Kershaw late in the game.The cool heavy ocean air and breeze from the bay kept those balls in the park.If this was Chase Field in PHX those are HR's.Giants would have won 3-2.Instead, they lost 2-1.

 

Again, humid air is lighter. If anything is a causal factor in what you have said, it's the wind. 

The number of HRs went way down the same year BBCOR became mandatory.  Some probably remember all those high scoring, mega HR games in the college World Series before BBCOR.  In fact, power numbers went too far down so they went to a low seam baseball to help bring back more offense.

Ha ha.  If you really want to get yourself in a tizzy, try wrapping your mind around the fact that the further away you are from the source of gravity, time speeds up. 

Take two people with watches synchronized to the millions of a second.  Have one take a flight of any duration.  Then check the time on both watches.  The time on the one that flew will be faster by a few millions of a second.  Granted it's very small (almost negligible), but it still proves it. 

https://www.quora.com/What-is-...-affected-by-gravity

If you can wrap your mind around Einstein's Theory of Relativity, you've got a good grasp on this.

bobbyaguho posted:
2020dad posted:
bobbyaguho posted:

My 2014 son's team hit 11.He hit 7 of them(2 opposite field). 2015 team hit 10 and 2016 team hit 4. Field dimensions 325 down the lines,370 in the gaps and 400 in center. Most of the HS fields they played on were similar in dimensions.The big difference was the micro climates.Schools closer to the Bay and ocean often had heavy marine layer and the ocean breeze blowing in which kept more balls in the park.The schools out in the East County have a much different desert like climate.The ball really carries well out there.I suspect our team would have had 20 plus HR's if we had played out there.

The 2014 senior class has four players that are playing in college.

D1 :RHP

D2: MIF

D3: OF(son),RHP

Either you have power or you don't.Either you have plus bat speed or you don't. BBCOR bats have never been an excuse for lack of power production. Many coaches still whine about them though.

 

 

 

BBCOR is a reality. I think everybody at all age levels should swing bbcor or wood so I am a fan. But to say essentially it makes no difference...  The old bats from 15 years ago probably add 50 to 60 feet maybe more!  It's a huge difference. And really didn't bbcor come around less than 10 years ago?  Anything before bbcor is not even close to a fair comparison. 

2020dad,

BBCOR was mandated here in SoCal beginning with the 2011 HS season which was my son's freshman season.It's all he ever used in HS baseball.The summers were/are wood bat leagues. I'm with you. I like wood and BBCOR .

What I don't like is when coaches blame their team's lack of offensive prowess on the bats. I still hear some HS coaches grumble about this.It's even more embarrassing when a college coach whines about it. The bats are not the problem.The hitting philosophy of the coaching staff  and the players recruited are the real culprit for lack of production. Again, either a player has REAL power or he doesn't.

 

 

 

I think we are on the same page. My son uses bbcor at 14 even though it is not mandated. In high school bbcor is nationwide now I am pretty sure.  And yes real power will prevail. He has not gone yard with the bbcor yet but close. One hopped the 380 marker. In high school no doubt he will be able. How many times?  I guess that's what we wait to find out!

I saw this post and did some digging.  In Cincinnati I looked at 4 Conferences top 50 Hitters.  Greater Miami Conference (Big Public Conference - Mason - Colerain - Fairfield - the Lakota's Hamilton ETC).  The GCL Boys Moeller Elder LaSalle and Xavier)  The GCL Co-ed Badin McNick etc - D2 and D3 Schools and the ECC - (the #2 Div 1 league - Milford - Loveland - Anderson Turpin).  Many of the D1 and D2 State qualifiers come from these conferences.

About 60 of the Top 200 hit at least 1,  None hit more than 5.   The big number was that it only happened once every 140+ AB -  So basically if a game averages 55AB's it happens about once every 2-3 games.

High Schools still use flat seam baseballs, So Pitching and Defense rule the roost in Southwest Ohio.    Offenses look for Gap 2 Gap hitters with High on-base.   I would imagine that at the smaller schools HR's are even more rare -  there is always an Andrew Benittendi  out there,  Home Runs are hard to come by. 

(D1 College Baseball averages about .4 HR per team per Game so just under 1 per game - using flat baseballs).

So in short,  my best answer would be about 1 in 4 players in general hit a home run  about 1 in 20 hit more than 1.

 

Can and do are two different topics.  We have many in our HS that can, but either were never given the opportunity in live games or if they were given the opportunity, they never produced in the games.  Great practice hitters when they know what's coming and can't touch a ball from an opponents pitcher.  I'm sure you have seen this somewhere. We had two like that last year. What was seen as one of the Greatest coaching moves every was when one starting player was replaced with a live game hitter for the remainder of the season (after 6 games of strike outs).  The second player remained through out the season, missing most everything - really struggled, which always leads to second guessing the coaching staff (one of which was this players older brother and the hitting coach).

My son's junior year his team had 4 kids hit HR's.  One had 4, one had 2 and 2 had 1 each probably had 3 others who could hit one, but none in games.  His senior year....son had 4, one other had 1.   There were 2 others who could hit them, but didn't get any during games.  Went and watched our HS team this past spring.  They didn't have one kid who had a chance at hitting one...and didn't have any as a team. 

Buckeye 2015 posted:

My son's junior year his team had 4 kids hit HR's.  One had 4, one had 2 and 2 had 1 each probably had 3 others who could hit one, but none in games.  His senior year....son had 4, one other had 1.   There were 2 others who could hit them, but didn't get any during games.  Went and watched our HS team this past spring.  They didn't have one kid who had a chance at hitting one...and didn't have any as a team. 

Some kids have the size, bat speed, power, and swing type to hit home runs.  You still need the proper swing to get it done.  My son was taught to try to hit every ball a solid line drive.  A home run (for his swing) was a miss-hit.  He got a little under the ball, produced a backspin and the results were a home run.  He never tried hitting home runs (so he claims).  He used BBCOR, ended up near the top of home runs for the state in high school.

By my count, son's HS team will have 11 kids on the 2018 team (4 seniors, 4 juniors, and 3 sophomores) who have hit a home run in at least one game (including scrimmage games versus other high schools) so far in their high school career. Our HS field is 330' down the lines, 380' to center, with a 16-foot high fence. Although to be fair, a number of those kids hit their homers on the road . . .

We play on smaller field (normal size GA high school field) - 310ish down the lines, 345ish in the gaps and 370ish in CF. There are some bigger field but believe or not smaller ones too.

Every kid in our starting lineup hit at least one with seven being the high. The year before, I believe the team hit six or so. Coach credits it to off-season lifting program. 

We have 143 HSV teams in our section. Here’s how the HRs went.

 Schools/number hit

30/0

30/1

21/2

19/3

14/4

5/5

7/6

4/7

4/8

1/9

2/10

1-12

1/13

1/15

1/16

1/17

1/27

 Last year our team hit 2 and gave up 4.

The main reason home runs are relatively rare in HS, is in general the fields are simply too big for the physical maturity of most of the players playing on them.

 Here’s a good example. JD Davis was called up for Houston this season and hit 4 HRs in 68 PAs, or 1 in 17. He’s listed as 6’3”/225, almost exactly what he was as a Sr.

 In his HSV career he hit 19 in 477 PAs or 1 in 25. His home field was 320/380/320, he played prior to BBCOR, and for all intents and purposes he was a man-child compared to all but a few of his peers

My 2017 son did not hit any HRs in his senior year games. He was the doubles leader for his team and hit many to or that 1-hopped to the fence. He has hit a few on travel teams over the years. Of course, his hitting instructor for 4 years preached and taught line drives.

One player on his team had 3 HRs and 1 player had 1 HR. The former was also our best pitcher and a fine hitter; the latter was a bench player who could occasionally run into one.

My HS pre-bbcor hit 1 a game.  These were shots that were crushed with high bat and exit speeds.  Beyond left field was a big warehouse so there wasn't much wind.  Last year our team hit only 3 all year and neither were impressive as they were typical line drives that simply carried far due to wind.  3 different batters, but my old MS baseball team could beat us.  

SomeBaseballDad posted:
Matt13 posted:

FYI--balls travel farther in humid air...

That's different than  anything I've ever heard.

The kid hit 9 out this year. A couple long fly balls on short fields, a couple absolute bombs on big fields. Also had a few that were raked but on a big fields for long fly outs, HR's on a lot of fields. Had a couple the were raked on a small field with the a strong wind blowing in for fly outs.

Hard to gauge HR's as a stat given all the variables.

It's established physics that the ball will travel farther in high humidity. Before mlb came to Denver, Atlanta was considered the launching pad.

roothog66 posted:

Our team hit 14 in 23 games. Only two starters did not hit one. Our field dimensions:

325' down left

335' to right

375' to the gaps and 

365' to center

the altitude changes everything. I played ball in Arora Co right outside of Denver once and have never seen balls hit that far...same applies to golf in the area. love hitting a pitching wedge 150 plus.

my sons Varsity team last year led league in Homeruns, total of 12, one kid had 7, one had 4 and one had 1...the 7 and 4 totals were #1 and #2 in the league. those 2 kids were both kind of special hitters that not every team has.

roothog66 posted:
Matt13 posted:
proudhesmine posted:

Sure you don't mean heavier? The more moisture (water) in something the heavier it gets.

Water vapor is lighter than air. Humid air is lighter.

Robert Adair's book is THE definitive work in this field.

https://www.amazon.com/Physics...-Adair/dp/0060084367

Do we now have to go back to all the tape measure home runs, analyze the weather patterns, and add a weather assisted asterisk? 

HSHURLER,

If you’re talking about North Gwinett, they only had 32. But that’s still pretty fantastic seeing as how they were the 10th highest in the whole country that posted stats on MaxPreps. They were also ranked 3rd in the state and 25th in the country, so while they deserve to be congratulated, they’re certainly not the “average HSV team.

Stats4Gnats posted:

HSHURLER,

If you’re talking about North Gwinett, they only had 32. But that’s still pretty fantastic seeing as how they were the 10th highest in the whole country that posted stats on MaxPreps. They were also ranked 3rd in the state and 25th in the country, so while they deserve to be congratulated, they’re certainly not the “average HSV team.

Thanks Stats!

The GOOD is that we only lose six HR's from the two seniors in last year's line up.

The BAD is those two seniors went a combined 21-2 with 150+ combined K's on the bump. Their ERA's were 1.39 and 1.52. We just can't replace that. 

The potential UGLY is that we have a really tough schedule and a lack on experience on the bump. 

I guess we'll find out in 126 days but who's counting. :-)

Last year our Varsity hit 11 HRs. One kid had 4, one had 3, 4 others had 1 a piece. The kid who hit the 4 all were legit 380+ power alley HRs. The others were pulled wall scrapers 330+ over the LF corner. We play on what would be a normal sized field for Varsity teams around here. 330 LF, 370 Gaps, 390 CF, 330 RF.  I wonder how many we could have hit if LF was 310-325? Last was spring was also freezing cold until close to June so I am sure that hurt the power numbers a bit.

At the HS level of physical development a lot of HS hitters can pull a HR now and then but it takes a real good hitter to hit them semi straight away.

I’ve always been an advocate of having the levels of baseball below MLB make whatever reasonable adjustments they can to match the PAs per HR as the ML. MLB has spent billions on research to find out what fans of the game want. This past season there were 6,105 HRs in 185,295 PAs. That works out to about 1 HR every 30 PAs.

 That would mean about 2 HRs per HSV game, and they’d still be hitting them at a reduced clip from MLB. The only way I can see that improving much is shortening the fence distances. My guess is, distances of 280’ down the lines, 310’ in the power alleys, and 350’ in dead center would improve the ratio quite a bit but still leave them short of the MLB standard.

old_school posted:
roothog66 posted:

Our team hit 14 in 23 games. Only two starters did not hit one. Our field dimensions:

325' down left

335' to right

375' to the gaps and 

365' to center

the altitude changes everything. I played ball in Arora Co right outside of Denver once and have never seen balls hit that far...same applies to golf in the area. love hitting a pitching wedge 150 plus.

my sons Varsity team last year led league in Homeruns, total of 12, one kid had 7, one had 4 and one had 1...the 7 and 4 totals were #1 and #2 in the league. those 2 kids were both kind of special hitters that not every team has.

We're in Colorado, but down in the southeast corner near the Oklahoma panhandle and Kansas border. It's all flat, farming country. Elevation here is about 2,000 feet, same as Texas panhandle or Western Kansas. The problem I used to have when I coached out of Denver was when we'd hit the road my outfielders would have problem tracking balls. They'd head deep on short flys because they would judge it to carry farther. 

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