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Reply to "2016 early draft top prospects"

younggun posted:

I don't know this kid at all.  Mine is purely speculation.  Assuming the kid has the grades to get into and make it at Vandy, I cannot understand this move.  I'm sure the kid is getting a full ride at Vandy with their ability to give out money above the 11.7 from endowments.  The kid obviously has the talent to go in the first few picks.  If he doesn't get the money or slot he wants, go to Vandy.  It's not like those guys at Vandy don't have a great track record of developing pitchers and getting them into pro ball.  To each his own, but I would never advise my son to give up a chance for a great education at a great university.  There just isn't enough difference in the money at 1/1 and 1/3 or 1/5 for me to walk away from the Vandy experience.  I know the kid from Stanford did exactly this a few years ago, but I think history tells us if you aren't 1/1 pick, the odds of you being it the next year or 3 years is pretty slim.  Chipola is a great program, but it aint Vandy.  My advice to my son would be make up your mind if you are ready for pro ball or not.  With this kid's talent, barring injury, the money will take care of itself.  I see this as a fundamental issue of do you want to start your pro career now or do you want the college experience.

It could simply be an early negotiating tactic.  Most clubs won't believe that a kid in the top 10 would forego signing to attend college and put the draft off three more years.  By shifting to CC, he basically says if he doesn't get the money he wants, he'll see you again next year.

It CAN provide leverage to a top prospect in this scenario, but could be a huge risk as Joemktg pointed out, if there isn't clarity among the top 5-10 on the board.

I will say the the risk/reward actually moves to the players favor IMHO in this case as he is basically saying he will consider the draft on a year to year basis.  Downside risk is injury or a bad year in the CC ranks hurting draft stock next year.  Upside is potential negotiating leverage and that 2017 draft seems to be stronger top end in position players vs this year draft which is clearly heavier top end on arms.

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