Nuke83 posted:HS pitchers have been taken first overall before, just never a RH prep arm. Groome had some questions off the field last year that led to his slip in stock. Moniak barreled up everything he saw during the summer at every high profile event. Has tremendous barrel control and great hands.
Goosegg hits it on the head. If you can sign any one of your top 3-5 with the 1-1 pick, and one of those can save you 1-3 million in slot money that allows you pay over slot later in the draft, you can have a significantly better draft class for the year rather than necessarily getting the one best player.
Consider last year Moniak signed for 6.1 saving the Phillies nearly 3 million of the $9+ slot. Likewise for the Braves signing Dansby in 2015 at 6.5 of an 8.6 million slot. It becomes a combination of finance, talent and need, and when you look at the difference of talent being slim between the top 3 pitchers and top 3 position players, the other factors weigh heavily. Now, when you have an unquestionable 1-1 like Harper, the talent begins to weight much heavier than the other factors, but there hasn't been that clear-cut 1-1 since him.
he has hit well but already then there were some scouts questioning whether he would ever hit for power. he does have some room to put on strength but he could still only be a 12 HR guy or so. his hit tool is good but so far his contact rate is just average although he is hitting for high BABIPs.
I follow the phillies a little and I don't really understand that pick. He is likely a good hitter but he is not a slam dunk to get to the power. solid player and would have been a good lower top10 pick but I don't see the one standout tool for 1-1.
he could still of course get to the power and become a 70 hitter with 55 power and then he would be a superstar but I think that is a lot of speculation and his K rate could also creep from 21 to 25% while his power gets to like 45 and then he is a 4th OF.