Trust In Him posted:9and7dad posted:I saw a post on Twitter yesterday from Jim Callis - senior writer for mlb.com. Last year only three guys taken in the top 10 rounds didn't get signed. The year before it was two. Given how the bonus system works, it appears most teams do their homework on signability numbers for the guys they draft.
They have to have a good idea what they will sign for. This is usually worked out prior to the draft pick announcement. "Note: If a team fails to sign a player, the slot value from that pick is removed from the bonus pool. This is why you’ll see teams heavily taking college seniors in the 6 to 10 round range: the team can sign those players for $1,000 to $10,000, and “save” money to be applied elsewhere in the Draft." If you fail to sign a top draft pick worth several million $$ it will create big problems and other penalties may occur with bonus pool.
I think the teams do negotiate with the "advisors" before the draft and get pretty much a hard number,both agents and teams know pretty much how much the player is worth. If you don't sign a player you lose the bonus pool money, but you get the pick back next year although I think one pick worse.
astros did that when they low balled aiken after realising he had a damaged UCL. lost the pick and the bonus money but they did get the second pick in alex bregman next year. worked out pretty well for them. they failed to sign their 5th rounder Jacob nix that year due to the lost bonus but bregman became an above average mlb player while aiken seems to be a bust.
astros really dodged a bullet of wasting another first overall pick after Mark appell plus they were able to use that extra money they lost last year to sign Daz cameron out of HS which they otherwise couldn't likely have done.