to me, it sounds like you are on the right track. there is a lot of noise out there, so control what you can control. sounds like he's in a solid position. Every year kids that commit freshman year risk having their commitment rescinded. That really hasn't change much, although one could argue there is a higher likelihood now. I wouldn't focus too much on what other kids are doing.. focus on finding the right fit for your son. The reality is recruiting classes could shrink by a few spots, less money available, etc.. so in this environment, i would expand your target list and try to determine what is most important to your son/family. Is it baseball program, academics, money, or a combination of them all. Your son may be faced with a decisions between stronger baseball programs that may be crowded vs higher academic schools that may have lesser baseball programs, but offer higher likelihood of playing time, etc. Those are decisions down the road but knowing those answers will help identifying programs to target. There are some great posts on getting recruited in this environment out there. get creative, get aggressive. good luck!