new to current college baseball, so please correct me if my grasp of how it works is incorrect, but I'm seeing:
the elite programs are going to get the top kids out of HS and weed them out and keep the very best. generally speaking their guys are going to be run off to make room for freshmen or drafted by their Jr year and not be around for their Sr year. there aren't going to be many elite guys coming out of JUCO and going to 4-year schools because they are drafted out of JUCO instead. elite guys generally aren't going to be available on the grad transfer market because they too would have gone Pro their Jr. year. elite programs might take some solid JUCO/Grad guys, but probably only to shore up a hole when the HS guys didn't pan out. for instance Arkansas brought in 2 Grad Xfers at Catcher and convinced a 2021 to reclassify as a 2020 when they discovered Opitz was likely to draft, Tamez left the program and Tollett was injured much 2020. they were likely going to be very thin at C and needed a quick fix. turned out the 5 round draft had Opitz returning to campus, so the 2021 stayed down and the grad x-fers weren't needed.
it's schools the next tier down that are going to lean on the grad Xfers and JUCO guys because they are seasoned and can help win right now. those programs can't get the elite HS kids because every HS kid wants to go to the same 5 or so schools (Vandy, etc). if those kids don't stick at the elite program they have burned a almost a year and drop down to a JUCO for a year and finally come back to a 4-year program in their 3rd year. most are draft eligible and likely to take peanuts from MLB because they are disillusioned from 3 different programs in 3 years and not making it at their elite dream school. there are always exceptions. but generally that's how I've pieced it together at this point. am I close?