quote:there is group-think out there that is far from perfect.
CD, Kind of off topic, but interesting observation on your part and very true in some cases. It's easier to agree than it is to disagree with the majority. Certain scouting departments do a better job of individual thinking. Twins for one!
It's interesting that even in our evaluations we become part of this process of group thinking. Anyone who follows our rankings of players knows they are always the first list put out there. We are absolutely positive that we don't have everything right, yet when all the other lists start to appear they're pretty much the same names moved around slightly in order to look original.
Always makes me wonder, if we miss a player, will another list ever have him? And we know we miss players at times. Just tells me they're not thinking for themselves and more importantly they are not actually seeing these players.
Kind of burns me... We spend millions to evaluate thousands of players and someone can read our stuff, without hardly any effort or cost, and go get people to subscribe to see their list. It is all the same names in a different order.
Our staff that predicts the draft is into the group think mentality. It's based on what they are hearing from decision makers out there. Our staff that does the high school player rankings doesn't care what the rest of the world thinks. We are basing everything off of what we see and think. These two things don't always match. Example our HS rankings had Brett Anderson ranked #2, our draft coverage predicted he would not be a first round pick. Though disagreeing, in the end both were right I guess, but one was based on group thinking, the other based on only our opinion.
The same thing happens in MLB Scouting Departments. If a well respected scout says something, GOOD OR BAD, the ball starts rolling. Before long everybody joins in and there you have it. Not enough individual thinking going on these days. Seems odd when predicting a baseball players mlb future is so very difficult.
Luckily, there are still some "ShoMe" scouts around that don't care what the next guy thinks. They don't buy into someone else's opinions. They have been around long enough that they know they will be wrong at times. And they have seen the mass thinking go wrong often.