Jeff,
Your post is timely as I have been thinking about the same thing since my 2011 son is in the middle of the recruitment dance. After going through a couple of camps and a number of other events this summer I scratch my head and wonder how two programs can rate my son at the same event very differently. It seems to me that this whole evaluation of a player is very very subjective at best for some programs. It cracks me up where one great game can move you up in a programs food chain or they come running and one bad game can move you down or off their list. The best programs seem to be very diligent and have “systems” to gather data from many sources and come up with a pretty good evaluation, and others are completely by the seat of the pants evaluation by very young and inexperienced coaches who are assigned to some of these camps/games. I personally find myself more attracted to the programs that are doing their homework over ones that come running after one great game, because it makes you wonder what they will be doing after one bad game.
I have also noticed that coaches whose contracts may be coming up or their program may be underperforming get a little tentative in their selections or holding off offers because they are so afraid of making a mistake or looking for "that" kid. I have also noticed that certain programs look for a specific type of player to plug in, while others are looking to fill specific needs. To find this out you need to do a lot of digging in their roster, teach your son to talk to the coaches frankly ask the right questions to see where he REALLY fits in their program.
I was talking to one of the coaches from my son’s fall scout team and he said “just wait until scout ball gets going after a few weeks, the blue chip kids will be finalized with their commitments and come off the board, the next level will start to drop off the board and then there will be this feeding frenzy trying to fill the remaining spots in almost a panic mode”. I have also noticed that some programs are already done with their 2011’s and others don’t have any offers out yet, very strange indeed.
TR is right if you try to figure it out it will drive you crazy, at least for us we are just working through OUR plan, and trust that it will all work out in the end.