Unless a player from far away shows potential to exceed who they would otherwise recruit the program is more likely to pursue a player from the region. At a state university it isn’t just about 11.7 scholarships. It’s also about the budget (dollars). Recruits from outside the region cost more.
Privates don’t have the same budget considerations. But distance, potential home sickness and cultural change are recruiting considerations for player and coach.
I remember posing to my son, “Are you sure a major city/suburban kid wants to go to college in a cornfield?” He loved going to college in the Midwest. But he didn’t stay when it was over. I remember his comment after being in the Midwest a month: This people are so nice and polite it’s freak’n goofy. When he graduated and moved back to the home region he had to get his FU back on.
This works in reverse as well. One of my college teammates left school after four weeks. There were more people on campus than his entire town.