Francis7 posted:“Kid signs his NLI and goes off to college. He will play all 4 years, unless he is drafted and signs, and never leave that school during that time.”
How often does that fairytale come true? More specifically, how often will a kid play in 4-year D1 school if he is a freshmen? What about as a sophomore?
Further, what’s the percentage of kids who end up transferring from the D1 school that they started with? Is like the divorce rate, 50%?
The 50% number comes up often here but I don't recall the source. Based on anecdotal evidence it seems to be true.
I think a lot of it comes down to this question: "Is your son a student-athlete or is he an athlete-student?" If he's the latter, and he commits to a D1 program and gets zero playing time as a freshman, then in many if not most cases he's going to transfer or drop down to Juco, & do whatever he has to do to get on the field, as he should. But let's say he's at an Ivy or a "Public Ivy" or really any other school he'd attend without baseball. In that case he probably returns year after year ready to battle for playing time and also ready to stick it out if he doesn't get on the field as much as he would like.