Francis,
I would say your analysis is pretty accurate. However, the density of D1 players varies greatly from state-to-state, as do the number of D1 roster spots, and they don't always match up. For example, California has approximately 250 D1 roster spots available each year for incoming Freshman. I can tell you that there are more D1 caliber baseball players within 100 miles of my little corner of Southern California. Many players have no choice but to seek out of state spots, tuition be damned. One would think that many schools in non-baseball hotspots would take advantage of this and recruit California kids, but very few actually do (outside of high academic schools that recruit nationally and the very top programs). Two that do are Vanderbilt and Michigan, you'd think others would take note.