@TexasLefty posted:Very interesting. Thanks! loved the intro with the showcase example.
Are these totals for all levels of HS or just varsity?
I appreciate the free content, but just thought I’d give my feedback. Shooting from the hip here as it’s late. I don’t think this is an accurate statement
You’re interested in playing college baseball, but what are your chances of making it to the next level? While many tout national probability as gospel, it turns out your odds of playing at the next level vary greatly depending on where you live.
IMO, the odds in big sport participation states are skewed because of participation level. I’m in Texas but the same probably holds true for CA, FL, and other warmer states… We have huge participation numbers starting as young as 8u and younger Blame the Astros and now the Rangers probably (TBD). My son’s school carried at least 20% more kids than needed across soph, JV, and Varsity teams. Rough guesses here… 40% of the players at his school won’t ever get a glance from any college, and another 40% are middle of the pack and probably won’t either. So 20% have a shot and only around 9.2% of those kids find a spot on a college roster.
Nothing wrong with your numbers btw. I just don’t think it’s a factor of where you live by region. I think there are way too many other factors involved to say where you live is even close to THE factor that affects the percentages in a state because there are so many variables: parents, opportunities for growth or competition through youth, days of warm weather, HS roster sizes, competition with other sports Warm weather and opportunities are probably the biggest factors. The ‘where you live’ theory would probably prove out if the warm states were grouped together instead of geographically close states with huge weather differences.
Anyway, I enjoyed the information and the thought provoking aspect of the article. I’ll probably even crunch some numbers tomorrow instead of working. 🤣
Here is a link to the statistics https://members.nfhs.org/participation_statistics
With respect to accuracy of statement, we understand there are many variables, some more clear than others, the objective by Keep Playing Baseball was to provide some additional context vs what is normally provided by NCAA at a very high level.
You are correct, the goal was to make people think vs going with the same assumption.
BTW, here is a link to the check out the state participation visually for any state/country
https://collegebaseballinsight...ation-insights-free/
There will more ways we can represent the information.
Thanks for your feedback.