Of the sixteen players in my son’s travel team roster class, eight had transferred before junior year. Everyone went major conference except one Ivy who was also offered by Duke. One kid it was only because he didn’t like the environment (culture) and being so far from home. The other seven overreached and chose their dream schools. In two cases the players chose the only D1 making an offer versus several D2’s. Coaches make mistakes too.
In one of these cases the kid didn’t see the field freshman year. He transferred to another major conference team (multiple coaches can make mistakes), sat out a year, then found himself behind a new recruit, top prospect catcher. He covered up an arm injury to compete, blew his arm out and never played a day of college ball.
My son’s definition of a dream school was one where he felt he could get on the field and get a good education. He chose an up and coming program he felt would win more than it would lose.