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Reply to "Committing Early"

Go44dad posted:

I put up a hypothetical example in a post earlier in the thread hoping people with more knowledge than I could take a guess as to how a Coach's recruiting budget is shaped at the end of this summer (2017) vs ten years ago.

Forget dollars, but just scholarships.  Assume the school is a D1 that has a realistic chance of hosting a regional in the next couple of years (maybe 32-36 schools?).  That coach has already made some verbal commitments to players, as well as incoming class that has signed NLI's.  I am postulating that by year, a coach's uncommitted budget for scholarships for the four classes of 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 are zero, zero, 30% and 70% by the end of this summer. Anyone else care to guess, or hopefully put forth an educated guess?  Can anyone put forth an educated guess for what it was at some point in the past?

This is on average, understanding that players get drafted, get injured, give up baseball or transfer.

I'm not smart enough to take a good guess on this one, Go44, ... wouldn't be surprised if your current numbers are pretty close.  But I do think there is a tremendous degree of fluidity to those numbers, which sort of offsets the argument a bit.  I think some coaches will hold out and keep an emergency stash when they can.  And, heck, there have been plenty of recent threads outlining stories of returning players being told their money for next year is going to be used "elsewhere".   I know too many of them personally.  Well, there it is... money available when there was none.  And now that four year deals are becoming more common at the power schools (I think?), can the coaches be more creative with the promise of more "make-up" money on the back end?

I agree this is a primary driver in compelling a player/parent to accept/commit early.  The money will be gone.  If it is the right school, take it.  If you don't take it, they will find another very good player that will.   But, on the other hand, if you are the player they thought you were and still available later, quite often they can find a way to come up with the money even if it isn't there at the moment.  Still, it's Risk vs Reward.  Will THIS school be able to come up with the money later?  Is THIS school the right one?  Is THIS school and THIS offer going to be your best?  If I don't take it, will I be left with far less appealing options?

I loved Younggun's story.  But I'm sure there are plenty of similar stories where the happy ending doesn't happen like it did for him.  VERY few will have that event with 50 college RC's and pro scouts there primarily to see THEM.  His remark rings true, though...  

"If your kid has the tools, the schools will find the money if they really want you. If you get that offer and say yes as a 9th or even 10th grader, you better go into it with eyes wide open. He schools have all, not some but ALL, the leverage. Once you say yes, you are essentially off the market. If things change for you at the school over the next year or so, now you are scrambling for a spot."

Even with all the great info and insight available on this site, there most often are no easy answers and everyone's situation is different.  Even if you are able to determine, early in the process, where your kid's tools will play, that is just one of many steps, many decisions, often many things out of your control.

I HATE things out of my control