Long ago, I took bbscouts word for it that college was not comparable to minor leagues, but at the time, it was difficult for me to accept, because it is widely accepted (incorrectly) that there are similarities to A or AA ball and the major D1 conferences.
I also believe that the definition of "development" evolves as players pass through the 8-10, 13-14, 15-16, high school and college ages on to the minor leagues.
So, when a high school parent asks whether a particular college or minor league organization is a better development option, I don't really know how to answer that, because, in my mind, I see them looking back and trying to project the future development in college or the minors based on what they have seen previously.
I think, with the exception of pitchers and hitting, that by the time players reach a D1 level, that the development is largely complete and players developed skills are refined further based on the talent level they face.
quote:Thus, are guys who are getting drafted out of college more than likely the guys who would have been drafted out of high school anyways but chose to attend college?
I think in general this is true.
quote:In other words, if you were not a pro prospect in high school, are you more than likely not a pro prospect after your college experience?
I think in general this is true, but even though a restatement of the first sentence, I don't think it is to the same degree.
I see a lot of young still growing bean pole pitchers that may not be physically mature until as late as their junior year.
One of the questions I asked bbscout, a long time ago, was how long does a typical high school player play and a college junior or senior play in the minors before making it to the major leagues.
Because I was secretly, at the time, hoping my son would go to college, I was hoping the answer was substantially shorter than what I received.
bbscout said that on average the typical high school drafted player spends 4-5 years in the minor leagues and the college drafted player spends 3-4 years.
So, a high school drafted player might be 23 and a college draftee 25 by the time they reach the major leagues.
So, by inference, it was very clear to me that something happens in the minor leagues that does not happen in college.
As my son went through his first year of intrasquads, I realized that the talent level much stronger overall, but I still saw players that I did not believe had the skills to play professional baseball.
During the past year, I have realized that many other factors enter into the equation.
Professional baseball is a profit making venture. So, and I learned this from bbscout and have now observed this for a few drafts, they try to pick players that will have the ability to play in the major leagues as soon as possible.
So, if a player they like can go to a major conference and compete, it costs professional baseball nothing to watch them develop for three years.
Then, when they draft the 21 year old college junior, they get a prospect that has three more year of maturity, used to traveling, and has faced the highest level of competion available short of the minor leagues.
So, it costs money to keep a player in the minor leagues, not much per player, but multiply that times about 200.
For a player where there is some doubt, going to college can be revealing to professioinal scouts.
One thing I have noticed, and this is debated after each draft, is the number of college v. high school players drafted through the first ten rounds.
Since my son is a catcher, I watch the draft by that position, and I saw a lot of college catchers drafted in the first 10 rounds this past year.
Each position and player develop offensively and defensively at different rates, and it seems that catchers take the longest to enter the major leagues.
So, while the decision was made to attend college solely on fit (and to frustrate the academcians, academics weren't even a thought) , it seems that criteria may be sufficient to consider these other more subtle factors, too.
Looking back, I think it is important to note that the apprenticeship for professional baseball is 5-7 years out of high school.
And now to placate (frustrating me) the academicians, am very glad my son is getting some college behind him.
Guess what, he now knows for himself that it is a long way to professional baseball.
And for those whose sons are in the minor leagues out of high school, they are likely there because they are viewed as being ready to enter the major leagues sooner, rather than later.
In summary, it did not go unobserved by this observer that bbscout's son attended college first.
You can observe a lot by watching is no BS.