RJM: I have heard this too that the class of 2010 is smaller nationally, and that graduating classes decline from there on. That does not necessarily mean that applications will be down, however, because the current trend is for each student to apply to more colleges every year. But there probably will be an overall slow decline.
As for the SAT, it is also true that a lot of colleges do not consider the new writing portion in their applications.
Bobble: We too have been told that college coaches will look for academic money first before dipping into their 11.7.