Look at MLB draft over the years. That tells you California, Arizona, Texas, Georgia and Florida.
California, Texas, and Florida are the three most populated states in America, in addition to having a favorable climate. Georgia is the 4th most populated in the Southern states (8th overall).
Matter of fact, Cali, TX, and FL have 75 million residents. That 25% of the entire U.S. population!
Point is...you give me three or four times the number of kids playing the game, and I'll give you more draft picks. That would not be a reliable indicator of how two individual high school teams might perform against one another.
Perhaps, a more equitable question would be to ask whether or not those three states in particular, represent 25% or thereabouts of the draft stock! (they vary well may)
California, Texas, and Florida represent > 40% of the 2014 US born MLB rosters (432/1041).