As others have said, yes they do.
With our older son, we would not let him commit until he had been admitted (Stanford). Stanford still requires the full admission application for its athletes. Essays, teacher recs...everything all the other kids have to put in. This can have (and apparently has) the effect of kids moving on to other schools where the admission is all but guaranteed.
Of course, I doubt they'd be able to decide for a sophomore or even until after a junior academic year. Still, they can give a green or caution flag in those time frames.
Seems like every year though, I read about a Stanford football or other commit who ultimately doesn't get in.