Reply to "Early Commitments at Son's Dream School"

I will begin by saying that this is probably not going to be a popular post. But as I told RJM, my posts are not about trying to generate “likes.”  I attempt to speak the truth.  And the truth is that the overwhelming majority of parents that have players in the 12 - 16 year old age range are delusional about the potential for their sons to play D1 P5 baseball. The statistical odds are incredibly remote. Somewhere between 6% & 7% of all HS players advance to play college baseball at ANY level. That includes D1, D2, D3, NAIA & JuCo. That means the number of HS players that ever see their name on any D1 roster is more like 2% and P5 less than 1%. So, it’s not enough that your kid is the best 13 year old you have ever seen. Or that he has a certain set of measurables at that age. He has to be an elite player on a national scale. It’s an easier road for pitchers as every team always needs another good one & half of every college roster consists of the pitching staff. But for position players to make a top 50 D1 roster they have to be head turning good. Especially as a hitter. There are some measuring sticks along the way that can be used as a gauge. Scouting service rankings are one - although not totally reliable if they are paid for. And almost all of them are. If you are a position player and you aren’t a HS Varsity starter in your Sophomore year that might be a reality check. But the best gauge of all is the level of interest shown by MLB scouts. If scouts are showing up at games to watch your son then P5 baseball is in the cards for sure. If scouts have never talked to your son by the time he is 17 years old that would be another reality check. The sooner any parent (and player) can get realistic about what level of college baseball (if any) is the proper fit, the better things will work out. Unrealistic expectations only lead to disappointment. 

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