I know of a Gatorade Player of the Year who headed for a ranked SEC program, hit .157 and was told to transfer to a JuCo. He transferred to an ACC, made all conference and was drafted in the first fifteen rounds. Some players have the talent, don’t perform when called and need a second shot someplace else.
Too many players don’t understand the level of competition they’re getting into. They shoot too high and end up on the short end of the competition for positions. A player has to be able to grasp when his dream school has him as a B list option and consider passing.
On the flip side I know a kid who was a preferred walk on at his dream school and led the ACC in hitting one year. That school was the only one he wanted to attend. He had the grades and money to get in.
The 50% transfer rate for D1 comes from NCAA data.