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Reply to "Earned Run or not?"

The general rule is that you cannot, for purposes of determined earned vs. unearned, presume that a DP will be turned. You can only score on a presumed DP if, e.g., the DP is turned but the sole reason you don't get the 2nd out is because the 1B drops a perfectly fine throw on the relay.

So, Emanski is right, and you still haven't really provided enough info to answer the question.

I would decide based on where it appeared the fielder was going to make the play before he booted it. If it looked like he was going to 2nd, then with the E, I would recreate the inning as if there were 2 outs and a man on 1st. After the pickoff, there should've been 3 outs, therefore all runs would be the result of the runner rendered safe and the "extra out" and thus all unearned.

But if the fielder were going to go to 1B all along, then the pickoff essentially cured the E and all runs would be earned.

I guess since you say it was a DP ball, you're saying the fielder would have made the play to 2nd base, so as indicated, all runs are unearned. You would recreate the inning as follows: 1 out already; E should've been 2nd out; pickoff should've been 3d out, end of inning.
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