Any parent that is letting their 2023 commit to a mid-major D1 or below is not very well informed. If the kid is good enough as a frosh to garner a D1 commitment, why commit that early to a program that isn’t P5? It all sounds a little suspect to me, don’t believe everything people tell you regarding offer and commitments, because believe it or not, people stretch the truth.
Also, most non-P5 wait to see who develops before making an offer. I am just really skeptical of parents who say these things.