I would agree with most of it in normal circumstances but too many guys in portal now for most programs. You can't look at history because it doesn't reflect reality. One SEC team last weekend had 5 guys starting that were not with the program last year. All the research in the world would not help you know that in advance. Then I look at UT, where son is, and the only one who was not with them last year is the back-up catcher, grad transfer, who had to start this weekend due to starter being injured. But of the starters probably 4 should have been gone last year in a normal draft year. It is hard to gauge the system right now with the one time transfer rule and the still lower draft. We have guys planning on coming back next year for their 6th year unless they get drafted, not if they get post-draft offer. They are coming back for masters and to finish out. That was unheard of in the past and those guys have played/started for several years with one year of medical redshirt. It will make life real interesting for 2020 and 2021 classes.