Thank you. As a CBI subscriber the data was very valuable for helping our son. I have found the topic of "early commitments" much more complex than I thought when my son's college baseball recruitment journey began. I think the article's major takeaway topics really get at the heart of what recruits need to be able to do before making their commitment in order to not be "early." So, an emphasis on maturity of decision/focus as opposed to specific HS grade (although they certainly tend to go hand in hand).
Some unfinished thoughts:
The data doesn't seem to support making a decision in junior year as it relates to the risk of HC turnover. Given the deltas, it seems like sophomore or senior years make more sense from a purely quantitative basis.
While the article concludes that "early" commits are not provided an advantage, I am not necessarily convinced they are disadvantaged relative to the point they would have ended up in if they (and perhaps everyone else) just waited (ie the market adjusts/corrects itself).
CBI probably has some great data that could show correlations of HC turnover relative to key variables. The article notes the likely high correlation for underperforming programs in top conferences. Which makes sense. But, there is also the risk of high performing programs in non P5 conferences, high performing programs in which the school isn't investing incremental money, HC nearing retirement, etc.
Thanks CBI for highlighting an important topic with many intricacies.