PABaseball posted:2019Dad posted:As is spelled out in his post, Jerry Ford's estimates addressed the kids they don't see. You can choose to believe his numbers and estimates, or not. I added 100 pitchers per year to be safe. Plus I didn't deduct for the draft, which obviously grabs many of the hardest throwers. Which still leaves 70% not having thrown 90 in high school (of course many throw harder in college).
Anyway, my post was in response to a quote that said "For the most part if a pitcher doesn’t max 90 in a showcase he’s not going D1." I understand the sentiment, but I think it overstates things.
That number is more likely 87 than 90. Plenty of kids throwing high 80s with very nice D1 offers to good baseball schools. 85, not so much
Again, all D1 baseball is not the same. 87 may get D1 attention in the Northeast part of the US. It won’t in the Southeast and the Southwest unless it is at weaker conferences (like the SWAC). Guys that are in SEC, ACC, Big12, etc. that are below 90 almost always have a special secondary pitch.