baseball17,
Truth is the cutoff man in that situation is there to cut any ball that is thrown too wide. If it too wide there's usually no play at the plate. Guess it depends on which level of play we talk about, but at the highest levels there is basically no chance at the plate (on the play you described) if the ball is cut.
That doesn't mean the throw should miss the cutoff man as he should be lined up. It's just that the throw pretty much needs to go through in order to throw out the runner. More important than missing the cutoff man is missing the catcher!
Now if the runner stops the cutoff man becomes very important, it could create a cut 3. So even in this situation you have given the cutoff man could become important.