I keep hearing the talking heads go on and on about how it's absurd for Strasburg/Boras to be floating $50 million or figures in that neighborhood.
Well, let's do the math.
The Nats have a brand new park that they've never been able to fill from day one, and this year attendance is down already in just its second year. The team has a few bats in place and a lot of young pitching in the pipeline, but there's nothing really to draw fans out right now. Even reduced prices haven't reeled 'em in.
Now, suppose Strasburg gets to MLB by the end of July. Time enough to do 14 starts, 7 of which would be home dates. In 2010, estimate 34 starts, 17 of which would be home dates.
Now, take the number of additional fans you think would show up for those first 24 starts on average, multiply it by 24, then multiply it by the average ticket price. Then add a factor for what the average fan drops at the concession stand.
Then think about the spike in sales of Nats logo wear, esp. jerseys with Strasburg's name across the back. Then think about the uptick in ratings for Nats broadcasts on MASN cable TV, and the resulting increase in ad revenue.
Honestly, it's not hard to come up with $50 million. So tell me, why shouldn't he get it? Because if he doesn't, it just goes to the team ownership. If you pooh-pooh his demands, you're basically saying ownership has a better claim to that money than he does. Well, maybe an argument can be made for a return on a capital investment, but you can't blame Strasburg for trying to capture the profits he creates while he has the leverage to do so.
And let's face it, if the Nats let him get away, the fans will drop the Nats completely. So really, Strasburg has them over a barrel, and they knew when they drafted him that this would be the case.
If I were the Nats, I would accept this reality and just bite down hard and sign him quickly. The sooner you sign him, the sooner he starts earning his keep. If you wait until Aug. 17 to sign him, knowing that by then you will absolutely have to cave in the negotiations anyway, all you did was cheat yourself out of those first several high-attendance games.
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