@CollegebaseballInsights posted:Standing on its own the one time transfer rule is not the issue, the addition of NIL and how it is being governed at the state level has given those organizations the opportunity to create their own model.
IMHO, the NCAA saw that handwriting on the wall (9-0) decision by SCOTUS (Kavanaugh laid the groundwork for more deregulation)
House v NCAA which is schedule for Sept 2024, may have even deeper impact.
With respects to given student athletes another year, IMHO it was a no brainer, as for how can you charge me for something that I didn't use.
IMHO, the student would have filed a class action suit to get back their time.
Everybody is mad, about something with this process.
It is a new world. Each individual needs to figure out how they will navigate.
sometimes we have to take the “crooked with the straight”
August Wilson - Fences
As stated many times, the current situation in college baseball has been created by three primary factors. The extra years of Covid eligibility, the transfer portal, and the reduction of the MLB draft from 40 to 20 rounds. These things are what created the mess. The addition of NLI has made the mess worse. I think everyone can agree on all of that.
But here is where I see the disconnect. People are still treating the recruiting process the same way they did before all of this happened. Reality is not being accepted and plans are not being changed as they should be. 8th graders are still committing to D1 P5s. This makes no sense. Everyone is hanging onto the D1 dream. This makes no sense. Kids are accepting D1 walk on offers over scholly offers to JuCo, NAIA, and D2. This makes no sense.
So people can complain all they want about the current model of NCAA baseball being broken. And it is. But to recognize that and not change your course of action because of it is…… just plain stupid. Guys that had a borderline shot at D1 in 2019 don’t have a realistic chance right now. But most are still going for it. And that’s a big reason that recruiting classes are so inflated. And a big reason the transfer portal is overflowing. Kids and parents are making bad decisions. There are about 3000 players currently in the transfer portal. I saw a quote from a D1 coach saying that over 2000 may never find a new place to play. I saw another D1 coach admit that they miss on about 50% of their incoming recruits.
So what is my point? It is this. The thinking of the players (parents) that are feeding the system is just as broken as the system. Borderline D1 guys need to not bet on themselves. The conditions are all wrong for that. The odds are too stacked against it working out. In today’s world if MLB scouts are following you in HS you have D1 talent. If they aren’t, you don’t. At least not yet. Go somewhere that you can get on the field and prove yourself. It doesn’t matter where it is. If you kill it you may have a chance to transfer up. If that option never develops then you are probably at the right level anyway.