You make great points about commits making wrong decisions. In some states walking onto a state D1 program is affordable. They want the D1 experience and you can't talk them or their folks out of it. They will either move down, drop out but might try to get back up again. Agree that many guys have killed it in Mid D1 programs and now moving up to better programs for better $$$ in the draft. And it doesn't matter what round anymore. Unfortunetly this will knock a player off a team. Players having to drop down has been happening since my son was in college.
While we see players not doing well, others thrive. It's all about the coaching staff at this point. From what I hear and read about going in a specific region, not good. But the bottom line is the better players will always want to play for a winning team. Gone are the days that the player wanted to try to make the program better because it is "what can you do for me today".
Dropping 20 rounds in the draft is not causing the issue. Most of these players were not top prospects but rather the guys who made up the team for the top prospects and HS players who didn't have better college options.
As CBI mentioned, individual state laws dictate what programs can and cannot do with NLI. NCAA giving no direction messed that one up. This is not coaches faults. It's all up to the collectives. Yes, kids are transfering for NIL opportunities.
Here is another issue. Our kids are used to a certain lifestyle. They come from homes where they have their own rooms, own bathrooms. Then they go tour a programs facility where they have to share and it's not as desirable as the P5 they visited last week where you have your own room and bathroom. Or the clubhouse is amazing. Programs need to put $$ into facilities. Their are mid D1 programs that have terrific baseball facilities. They draw some of the better players into their programs. I will give you an example, Southern Miss.
This is happening everywhere, not just for athletes. Universities are competing by offering better lifestyles, better food in the cafeteria, better gyms to workout, etc.
I lived in a college dorm where the bathroom was down the hall. How did I ever survive that !?!?
JMO