Excellent post that covers all of the key parameters. Now with a 2017 in the final stages of this process,I cannot emphasize enough how much the Academics can impact the Family Finances. If you fall into that unfortunate "middle ground" where the family has "too much" income to get need-based aid, then most of the private colleges are going to be too expensive to self fund with loans and savings. That is especially true in high residential cost living areas like California where so much of your income has to go to housing, but FASFA believes your income should be able to support the full cost of college. That really limits the school options to public universities, most of which are D1 or D2, where a kid may simply not be talented enough to play at.
But if a player really hits the books in high school and gets strong grades and scores very well on the ACT/SAT, many otherwise unaffordable schools can provide academic merit aid and bring the cost down substantially. Then if a kid is not a D1/D2 talent but still wants to play college baseball at a D3, there are many more private schools that might be the "right" school because of the merit money included. I am not sure I appreciated that revelation until I started doing the Net Price Calculators at many of these private schools who were showing interest in my son. What a huge difference my 2017's test scores are making in the merit aid estimates. There are schools now in his final list of candidates that never would have been without those merit aid options.