Originally Posted by 2019Dad:
I generally agree with you, 2020dad, about individual players who are dominant don't all of a sudden become lousy, but I have noticed an "evening out" of teams. By that I mean teams that were dominant at 12U -- and by "dominant" I mean best-in-the-country-winning-the-NYBC-type teams -- are still good, but not nearly as dominant, for two reasons. First, a lot of the top players on those teams tend to have May-August birthdays, which means at 12U they were playing a lot of kids a grade younger. As they move into older travel ball it is done more by grade rather than "league age." Second, a big 12-year-old (i.e., "league age" 12 --maybe turns 13 on May 1st) can weigh twice as much as a small one (say, 160 lbs. vs. 80 lbs.), and that type of percentage discrepancy is unlikely to occur at 18.
Now there is a good point. But I think again its a matter of definitions and standards. I look at those magic birthday kids and take that into account. We have one who throws the ball nicely. Good control. Not fast but not slow. Gets hit hard by good teams. But if he were playing with his class he would really struggle. But then again this is not really a stud is it? And further this side bar started with saying these kids fade in HIGH SCHOOL. So like root said a kid who throws 83 is still a pretty decent high school pitcher. And I would really want to know that full history. There is something else going on there. Either we are guessing his early velocity and it wasn't really 80. Or there was an injury known or unknown. Or he became lazy or something. You would gain more than 3 mph over 5 years just from strength gain and mechanics. So either the kid did no work on his body and mechanics or there is something else askew here.