Twoboys posted:Whoa
The number of HS baseball players is almost 489,000.
FROM THE NCAA (from 2015-2016 numbers)
High School Participants NCAA Participants Overall % HS to NCAA % HS to NCAA Division I % HS to NCAA Division II % HS to NCAA Division III Baseball 488,815 34,554 7.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8%
So while those going on to play in college (at D1, D2 or D3 level) are not necessarily the TOP 7.1% capability wise as there are other factors at play, it is still a fact that 93% or so of HS players DO NOT play collegiately.
I therefore believe it is a big jump to say that most HS players could play. Most do not because most can't. There are exceptions of poor programs, coaches who take any warm body with a checkbook, etc. But these numbers are facts and speak for themselves.
FYI the percentages are even lower for womens softball.
I agree with your statement that most don't because most cannot.
But the above numbers are a bit misleading (I'm generally skeptical of anything put out by the NCAA).
First, if a kid does not play baseball throughout high school, is it fair to count him in the analysis? Around here, most schools have Frosh, JV, and Varsity. A significant percentage of the frosh baseball players -- perhaps half -- never go on to play varsity, never mind college. I would venture to guess that the number of seniors in that "high school participants" is roughly 100,000, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were lower.
Then, how many kids are there who do in fact go on to play college baseball but quit, get cut, etc.? Those kids are not counted in current "NCAA participants," but they did go on to play baseball collegiately, at least for awhile. In addition, kids who go on to play at NAIA schools (there are about 180 of those schools with baseball teams) also aren't counted in those numbers. And kids who go to jucos aren't counted either -- there are hundreds of jucos with baseball teams.
My guestimate is that, out of kids who play all the way through high school, the percentage who go on to play (however briefly) at some level of college (D1, D2, D3, NAIA, Juco) is probably in the 12-15% range.