Are you guys ready for critical thinking? I mean, we should continue to face reality. Looking at evidence to see if the Pandemic is playing out as predicted several weeks back when lockdowns/social distancing and other methods were put in place?
The data below is from the Murray model. The IHME. http://www.healthdata.org/ This is the model used that has shaped the state and federal policy that we are operating under. There have been some large changes in the predictions the last couple of days.
The overall peak of hospitalizations have not changed at this time. Total hospital beds have been revised downward 46%. ICU beds down 26% and ventilators needed down 40%.
Here is a comparison of the model predictions for hospital beds needed by state on April 4th to the published bed usage from each state.
What? Your aging eyes with 2.5X magnifying glasses can't read the size 4 font? Click here https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU...t=jpg&name=large
I am all for a couple more weeks of the current rules, and then seeing what the data says. In no way to I contend that this isn't a real problem. Just that we should continue to look at the data.
My hopes are that the models are very wrong, missing on basic assumptions. My thoughts are that China covered up and lied about much of what happened in Wuhan, particularly when the outbreak began. There is genetic evidence by UCSF https://twitter.com/AgBioWorld.../1247151574662680576 that there are multiple lines of Covid-19 in the same city, meaning that there wasn't a "single source" that started an area outbreak. Conjecture to me at this point, but a much earlier outbreak covered up by China coming in and out of the US (and Italy, Britain, Iran, France, the rest of the world). This means the start date for the calculations in the model are much earlier than the week before the first positive case in Washington (that's what is currently used in the model). An earlier start date "flattens the curve", or in reality, the curve was never going to be as steep as we were told.
Here is an article on "The curve is already flat" https://archive.fo/Nd2YC I can't source this as well, so take it for what you want.
Again, I hope the models are very wrong. Nothing wrong with being an optimist, is there?
Some context. My current wife is an occupational therapist. She works with a confined and fragile population, a "State School". To translate that to a dictionary from 40 years ago, an Asylum. She is over "Choking" for about 200 patients. (I really enjoy introducing her at parties). They had half dozen or so COVID positives. And one death. She had "same room contact" with the deceased, but not hands on treatment of him. But it seems to have settled and not increased. So we are very aware of quarantine, isolation, etc. Also, my first wife passed away as a result of the common flu progressing to pneumonia about a dozen plus years ago.
