anotherparent posted:That's just the point, the models are constantly changing. They are changing daily, based on what is happening with social distancing. The models specifically are based on whether or not there are stay-at-home orders; in the model, Alabama's predicted hospitalizations dropped dramatically as soon as the stay-at-home order was issued. Also, the original models assumed that only 50% of people would follow the guidelines. It's sad that's what the modellers predicted, I guess they were relying on some idea about human nature. It now turns out that 90% of people are following the guidelines, so the models have changed, the rates have gone down. Turns out people are taking it seriously after all. So, input changes daily.
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Anotherparent - the modeling assumptions, where did you find them and for what model? Its a serious question - I like to track this stuff and what you write is completely different than my understanding. If you could post that would be great or send me PM please.