Reply to "It is Past Time to Face Reality"

anotherparent10,000+ posts

baseballhs posted:
They are making major adjustments to them daily...isn’t that the definition of saying they were wrong?

No, that's the definition of them saying that conditions are changing daily, and they are getting more data daily. No-one has seen this disease before, and no-one has actually experienced lockdowns that we are having. So, if they create a model by estimating that in a lockdown, transmission will drop from 2 to 1, but then they discover that what is actually happening is that it is dropping from 2 to .5, then the outcome changes. And that's just one piece of it.

In the meantime, they are desperately trying to figure out what will happen when the lockdowns end. My guess is that no-one has any idea. So, they're going to be wrong again.

4/9/208:09 PM

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