Reply to "It is Past Time to Face Reality"

CTbballDad posted:
So, they were wrong? Asking for a friend.

We never spend 6 pages on here arguing about things, do we?

O.k., so how about this comparison to a model that we all know and love (and argue about endlessly), Perfect Game rankings? With thousands of players, those rankings (except for the top 200, maybe) are also models:
- they are based on mathematical formulas that weight a variety of inputs
- the inputs change for each player all the time
- the rankings change all the time, until the draft after the players' senior year

So, are those models "wrong" in freshman HS year? junior HS year? Are they "right" at the end of senior year? Are they predictions, or do they measure past results? Do they influence actions?

Thank goodness the original coronavirus predictions were wrong. They were wrong because we changed our behavior.

4/10/208:22 AM

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