I think another component of risk management is your willingness to wait for an Ivy offer at the expense of passing on other offers now. My 2019 was getting what I think was legitimate interest from a few Ivies beginning last spring through the summer. They let us know his grades are where they need to be and his SAT score (taken early!) was in range. I was crazy excited. But by August he had offers from a handful of D-1 schools including a high academic in a power 5 conference. Across the board, it was made pretty clear to us that the scholarship money would not be available forever. So do you pass and hope for the Ivy offers next spring or fall? Will the non-Ivy offers still be on the table in a year even if the scholarship money is gone? Son decided he didn't want to risk it and committed to the HA. He is thrilled and his mom and I supported his decision. Bird in the hand...