FWIW, Here is my opinion. Please, not looking for an argument, but there seems to be different opinions here. For sure, I hope no one thinks the individual hitter’s stats are more important than the game.
I believe very much in percentage baseball. That said, both ways have worked and both ways have failed in the past. From a hitters standpoint I need to beat the pitcher. From a coaches standpoint I know pitchers sometimes beat themselves. Seen it at every level including the Big Leagues!
Tigerboy’s poll:
7th inning, trailing by two, pitcher on the hill with a high pitch count...do you have players
Choices:
Take until they have a strike
Take until count is in hitters favor
Swing at ball in the wheelhouse
Treat as a normal at bat
Other
First of all. The high pitch count is not an important factor. This is the same situation with the starter in the game or if the closer just entered.
Some very "knowledgable posters" have said they treat this as a normal AB or swing at the strike fastball. Their opinion should be respected because they bring up some valid points. However, hope no one minds that I disagree in this case.
To me baseball is a game of percentages and situations. For example, no matter how aggressive your team might play, would you attempt stealing 2B if your leadoff hitter got on base and he had a 95% SB success rate in the above situation?
Would you give the opponent a 5% chance for an out despite the fact that both your base runner and hitter have to score or you lose the game? I really doubt most coaches would attempt a stolen base unless they were giving it to you.
Everyone who’s ever coached can relate to what you want your pitcher to do, up by two or more in the last inning. Worst thing he can do is walk the leadoff hitter. Normally, unless the hitter goes 0-2 count he will see more fastballs to hit. So if the 1st pitch is called a strike, the 2nd pitch becomes the most important pitch in the AB. We could go "count" logic for ever, but were talking about a specific situation.
The pitcher loves the one pitch out in this situation. Especially when this hitter can’t beat him.
There are only so many ways to reach base. Walk, Hit, Hit by Pitch, Error, 3rd Strike PB/WP.
Hitters need to understand their job. In most cases the job of the hitter leading off an inning is to “get on base”.
In the situation Tigerboy asked about, getting on base is the only job. In normal situations I would agree with those who say jump on the first pitch strike fastball. In this situation I would be taking a strike.
By hitting the first pitch I’ve eliminated two options for getting on base. And we still need another run besides the one the leadoff hitter represents.
Even with taking first pitch called a strike, I have all the possibilities left for getting on base.
It is understood that this can put the hitter at a disadvantage, but the %s of winning the game are better by taking a strike in most cases. Would you take a strike if your team was four runs down in the same situation?
Swing = Basehit – Error – OUT - 0-1 count – 1-0 count
Take = 0-1 count – 1-0 count
Being 0-1 doesn’t mean you won’t reach base
Does being 1-0 mean you swing at the next strike?
How about if your hitter goes 2-0, do you swing or take in this situation?
If you were 3-0 count leading off this inning would you want your hitter hitting the BP fastball right down the middle or taking the pitch? Afterall, it will probably be the best pitch to hit he will see that day.
One more thing, What if the above situation was a three run difference and your leadoff hitter was on first base. (Tying run on deck) Would you have your next hitter take a strike or swing at the first good pitch?
Besides the other results mentioned earlier now you add the Double Play possibility into the mix of negatives.
Yes, the hitter might hit a home run off that first pitch. Guess what... you still lose unless that on deck hitter scores. These are situations where the walk is actually as good as a hit and a basehit is nearly as good as a home run. Of course, that’s if we’re talking about the game rather than the hitter.
I love aggressive players and hitters. In fact, I don’t think you can be a great hitter unless you have “controlled” aggressiveness. It’s just the game sometimes tells you to do something different.
There are isolated cases where I might want the leadoff hitter in the above situation swinging the bat, But it would be rare.
Anyone ever been in these situations from the pitchers point of view and noticed umpires all of a sudden pinching the strike zone? Even the umpire can help you win if you take a strike in this situation.