quote:PGStaff, why is it so difficult to accept that there are a lot of people with a lot more experience in the field of risk analysis who know more about the significance of the risk than you or I? I daresay its very much more likely you can judge the potential of a given ball player than I can, but I doubt you could do a detailed analysis of the work flow in a business, then program a computer to most efficiently make changes.
Our perceptions aren’t the best way to judge reality in an environment we aren’t extremely familiar with.
Scorekeeper, I’m getting a little tired of this debate.
Of course, I know nothing about the statistical analysis done by the insurance industry. Not sure what that work flow stuff is about.either. And did I somehow miss the whole insurance statistic thing to begin with. I thought there was mention in your original post of a group study. There have been other studies that have come up with different statistics. Did you happen to see the HBO special on this topic?
But when we start talking about the invironment (if you’re referring to baseball) I would guess that I’m much more familiar with that invironment than any insurance statistician on earth.
Let me ask you a couple questions.
In 1998 (I think that’s when it was) when the NCAA placed restrictions on the metal bat because of safety factors and the game becoming a farce. Did the insurance companies lower their rates the next year. If not… Why? The game became less dangerous.
Back when the exit speeds WERE proven to be MUCH higher on the -5 to -11 bats, did the insurance industries raise their rates. IF not… Why? Those bats were proven to be more dangerous.
One thing I do know about the insurance companies is this… They make a lot of money off of us. And the more we do, the more they make! I’m not talking about players dying in large numbers, so that it might affect the multi billion dollar insurance industry. I’m talking about the added risk your son or my son has when he is standing 55 feet from contact. I don’t need an insurance company to tell me there’s a difference between a metal or wood bat. I just know I’d prefer the hitter be using a wood bat when my son is on the mound. I’m not interested in what the insurance companies are telling me. I really doubt the insurance companies will even get interested until it starts affecting their profits.
The bottom line here is that many of us would prefer wood bats. I think safety is a big reason, you think it’s not a concern. Is it OK if I keep thinking it is a concern! Even if I might be all wet!
I know the insurance companies know more than I do. Heck, they’re even betting on how old I am when I die! Wonder if they’ll be right? It won’t change the statistics much, but it sure is kind of an important issue to me!