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Looking at strike three, a good thing?

Sometimes the analytics or other tracking methods just aren't enough.

 

For example...

 

We used to tell our lead off hitter to take the 50-50 pitch with a full count.  So if he gets rung up on a pitch just off the black, he did the right thing.  However, taking strike three is not considered a good thing in the record book.  How do we account for this?

 

Playing percentage baseball is as old as it gets.  With all the modern statistics and high tech equipment we can figure out percentages on many things.  However how do the numbers pertain to the example above?  And there are many other examples.

 

Maybe you disagree with the example above being the best percentage play.  Think about it... What is the lead off hitters job in any inning?  I know the 50-50 pitch is hard to define, but it is also hard to hit.  50-50 in theory would give the hitter, over time, in that full count situation a .500 OBP.  That is real good by anyone's standard.  If swinging at that same pitch what are your chances of getting a hit, surely nowhere near .500.

 

So half the time you walk and half the time you strike out with the bat on your shoulder.  It takes a true team guy to do this.  Because nobody wants to look bad and looking at strike three is not considered a good thing.  Yet in this case it might be the right thing to play winning baseball. This is where the hitter is doing his job and it should be noticed. Kind of like, but less obvious, than the guy that hits the ground ball to the right side with a runner at second base and no outs.

 

So IMO  Any hitter leading off an inning who has a full count and takes strike three on a 50-50 strike or ball has just had a "quality" at bat rather than a K looking.  This is winning baseball and team baseball most of the time.  As always there are exceptions due to situation and the hitter.

 

Anyone think differently about this?

 

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